Fit or Fold: Pt III - Avoid

In this final installment of the Fit or Fold series, we will discuss the various pitfalls that the average FoF player will encounter, and how to avoid being a FoF player yourself. If you've not read the previous two installments, you can find the first and second one on this blog.

The average FoF player would always run into scenarios where he has to make tough decisions, simply based on the fact that the wide range of hands he plays have the possibility of being second best, e.g. out-kicked, second best to an over-pair etc. Since FoF players are also generally very passive, they will generally not know where they are in the hand, and will call down to the river with a top pair and a bad kicker, losing huge pots to mediocre hands.

A very good example of this would be a hand I played in a live game recently. As most of you would know by now from the previous few articles that I wrote, I play very regularly in a poker room where there are a lot of loose passive fit or fold players. In this particular hand, I was holding Td4d on the cut-off. After all the usual limping from the early position players, a somewhat tight but passive player in early position raised 5xBB from middle position. Action folds to me, and I decide to isolate raise with a 3-bet to 16xBB. As expected, all the other players behind folds, and the initial raiser flat calls. The flop comes Ks7c3h, and the initial raiser checks to me. I bet 2/3rds of the pot, and he calls, telling me without doubt that he has the King, but possibly without a strong kicker. The flop was an extremely bad one for me, and I was almost drawing dead, so when the turn came a 5c, and action was checked to me, I checked behind, hoping to make my gut-shot on the river. River came the miracle 6h, and suddenly I had the best hand. The initial raiser bets slightly less than half the pot, and seeing that he had about his raise amount left in his stack, I shoved him all-in, he calls, and I show the straight to take down the pot.

What mistakes did the FoF player make here? First of all, he played a potentially mediocre hand out of position to a 3-bet. What he was basically hoping for was to hit either one of his hole cards and call down to the river. Second, after he made his hand with top-pair, he was still playing too passively, flat calling the flop instead of making a raise to find out where he stood. As he did not know my hand, it was entirely possible that he was still behind to a K with top kicker, since I 3-bet him on the flop (which illustrates the pitfalls of passive playing perfectly). Third, by checking the turn, he allowed the last free card to hit the board, which further puts him in the dark with regards to how strong his hand relatively is. Finally, he bet the river when he is utterly ignorant of where he stands, and calls a raise all-in directly after.

From this example, it is also all too clear how best to avoid being a typical FoF player. Three words, play in position. Playing in position gives you better reads on your opponents since you get to act after obtaining information from their actions. Placing myself in the position of the FoF player in the example, I would have 4-bet light to avoid playing out of position or folded pre-flop. On the flop, I would have check-raised and second-barrelled the turn to push a worse hand off the board. On the river, I would have bet, but folded to a raise if I only had top pair. Would you readers, have played this differently? Let me know in the comments section.

Picking your spots is crucial to playing poker in the long term. Of course, it is also possible to play poker as a loose player, but just to be loose isn't enough. There is only one type of profitable loose player, and that is those of the aggressive genre, typically known as LAGs. Good LAGs play loosely, but in position, and with controlled and calculated aggression. This is how they differ from the average FoF player.

This concludes the series. Till next time, good luck picking on Fit or Fold players, and avoid being one yourself!

When You're Meant To Lose

Have you ever been dealt a hand when you're predestined to lose from the get go? How do you cut or avoid losses in hands like that? The worst thing is when it happens when you're already down. It feels like a punch to the gut, and you're left wondering when it will end.

I play very regularly in a live game at a poker room where I live. Games there are generally very loose and aggressive, usually played at the $2/$5 stakes. This particular hand happened just last night on a full ring table, between 3 players, 2 of them extremely loose players (calling raises with 62o!) and another who would almost always play any two suited cards from any position (this isn't considered loose in that room!). Of the two loose players, one of them (Player A) is usually very aggressive, raising with almost any two cards while the other (Player B) plays a more passive game, only becoming aggressive after the flop. Pre-flop action was the usual limping from early position, followed by a 5xBB raise from Player A in mid position. 3 players after him folds, button calls, Player B in the small blind calls, and the big blind and initial limpers all call.

Flop came 2sTs5s, and action was checked to Player A who bet 5xBB. Button makes the call and Player B thinks then raises to 5 times the raise of Player A. With such a huge raise, it was almost certain that Player B had a made hand, at least 2 pair or better. Surprisingly, Player A and button flat calls, and the dealer dealt a 6h on the turn. Player B checks, Player A bets 20xBB (a minuscule bet compared to the pot), button calls and Player B instantly goes all in. Player A instantly calls and button goes all in immediately, flipping over the nut flush with As9s. Imagine the shock of everyone else at the table when both Player A and Player B flip over K high and J high flush! River, a 9c, was irrelevant as both players were drawing dead to the nut flush.

Imagine that! All three players flopped the flush, all three were slow playing, and all three thought the other was drawing to a flush (players in this room generally go for draws regardless of pot odds). This was the sickest cooler hand I ever saw, and I've definitely seen my share. How do you escape from losing the maximum with hands like the K high and J high flush? I remember a very similar scenario about 5 months back, of which I was on the receiving end. I had Ks9s in early position, UTG limped in, and I followed suit. A few other limpers came in as well, and the flop came three spades, no ace (I forgot the actual cards as it was such a long time ago). Blinds and UTG checks, I check, and one of the limpers made a 1/3 pot raise. UTG flat calls, and I re-raised to 4x the initial raise. Everyone else folds, including the initial raiser, but UTG calls. Turn comes another spade, and UTG checks, I bet, he goes all-in, and I knew he had the Ace, but I couldn't fold it and called. He showed pocket aces.

I think the simple "moral" of these hands would be - never play any two suited cards unless they are the nuts. Drawing to anything other than the nut flush or straight would potentially lose you a lot of money as making your hand would be tantamount to trapping yourself with the second best hand. This is why playing with any two suited cards is so dangerous. There was a similar hand that night where I also made a two hole card flush, but lost the maximum to the nut flush. This really sounds like a lot of bad poker, and it is. Embarrassing to tell, but one can only learn from such experiences.

Any of you readers have similar experiences? Let me know in the comments section. Cheers!

Knowing You're Ahead, but...

How often have you had a hand where you know you're ahead, pushed all-in and your opponent calls with a draw, and gets there? So many hands of poker come down to a face-off between a pair and two over cards, or even a pair and one over card. The former is a coin toss, and the latter the pair being the 2 to 1 favorite. In both situations, the pair is always the better hand, or as they say, ahead, but when the over card(s) spike on the flop or the following streets, the pair will be down to a two outer and will almost always lose.

Poker is not gambling, almost all poker players will tell you that. But placing all your chips at risk on a coin flip is gambling, like it or not. Some poker players will tell you that as long as you put your money in when "you're ahead", you will make money in the long run. That is true, to a certain extent. The only time that isn't true is when your bankroll cannot sustain you for the "long run".

An example from a live game I played just recently; I had Ac9c on UTG position, playing $2/$5 stakes, 9 handed. The game was crazy, players calling down with almost any two cards, going all-in with hands like J9o preflop with 5 callers in the pot, most players gambling with almost any two cards. UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, player after that folds, and all mid position players called to the cutoff who raised to 6xBB. Button and the blinds fold, and action was on to me. I should have folded, being out of position with that many callers behind me, but I elected to call as the odds were decent, and the callers and raiser were loose players, the raiser having shown down extremely poor pre-flop raise hands. UTG+2 folds and the mid position player after him goes all-in for practically $600 in chips. This move forces every other player including the raiser to fold, and action was on to me. I have played many times with this particular player, and know him for a very loose, very aggressive player who doesn't mind losing his money. Limping from middle position and shoving all-in after a raise generally signifies only one thing. Weakness.

My A9s would be 50/50 against an under-pair, or two face cards, and a big favorite to any Ace with a smaller kicker. I read him for a small pair, suited Ace with a small kicker, or connected face cards like QJs, JTs. In all three situations, I would be at least 50/50 or better, so I made the call. He flips over KsQs, and we're down to a coin-flip with me having the upper hand (+13%). Flop comes 6d3cTs, and I'm almost a 3 to 1 favorite, when the turn comes a Kd and I'm drawing to a 3 outer. River was no help and I lost my stack.

How many times have you watched tournaments where players were knocked out based on 50/50 odds? In the recent WSOP $40k buy-in event, the eventual winner held Aces (no diamond) against 8c3d, and with a flop of QdTd8d was given 50/50 odds to win the bracelet. He called an all-in from the 83o (lots of donk plays by this guy, Haxton, the eventual runner-up) and his Aces held up, but it was certainly a toss-up. Even in situations where you're a 2.5 to 1 favorite, like KsKc against AsJs, should you put all your chips at risk? This was an actual scenario where I had the Kings on the big blind against a mid position limper with AsJs. We were both deep stacked, and I raised 6xBB to kick all the limpers out, but the AsJs then reraised 3x my raise. I over-bet with a shove all-in, and he reluctantly calls, spikes an Ace on the flop to take the pot. Doesn't seem fair but that's poker.

When or what makes it right to put all your money in? Here's my personal opinion, which is in one word, equity. When you have fold equity, e.g. you put the opponent's tournament life at risk with an all-in bet with a mediocre hand, that puts him in a decision for all his chips. You fold AKs pre-flop late in the tournament when there is a raise and a call in front of you with a healthy chip stack because you have better equity (cashing in the money) than 50/50. Is this gambling? Debatable. I like to think of it as calculated risks.

Let me know what you think in the comments section. Till next time, may you always put your money in when you're ahead!

Overview to Playing Multi Tables Online

Online play is measured by a statistic called BB/100, or Big Bets per 100 hands. The two major tracking software, Poker Tracker and Hold'em Manager measure Big Bets as twice the big blind. So if your BB/100 is 5, you essentially make 5 x 2 x Big Blind every one hundred hands you play, e.g. if you're playing at $1/$2 stakes and your BB/100 is 5, you would be making $20 every one hundred hands.

In live games, you would probably see 100 hands in two to three hours of play. Making $20 in that time is ridiculous. You might as well be serving tables and you'd likely make 3 times as much. In online play though, you could probably see 100 hands in an hour of play on a single table if you play 6 max. With a BB/100 of 5, that would equate to an income of $20 an hour. Now, for every additional table that you play simultaneously AND maintain your BB/100, you increase your income generated per hour. E.g. playing 5 tables simultaneously with a BB/100 of 5, at a rate of 100 hands per $1/$2 table per hour, you have an income of $100 per hour. This is why playing multi-tables gives an online player a significant advantage in terms of possible income.

I'm sure a lot of you have heard of players playing 20-50 tables at once, and you wonder how is that possible. I thought that too when I first started, but once I experimented with playing multi-tables, it was actually a lot easier than it sounds. Picking the right software is very important. I have used Full Tilt, Party Poker and PokerStars in my experiments, and right now, the best option seems to be PokerStars for a few reasons. First off, PokerStars has the most number of players at any one time, which makes it easy to start off 20-30 tables in a matter of minutes. PokerStars also puts in a lot of support for multi-tabling in their software. Simple stuff like automatic table pop-up when action is on you, table positioning memory, auto seating preference etc. make multi-tabling a lot easier. Another thing in their favor is the rake-back programme incorporated in their software which gives pretty much the best rake-back deals, especially if you manage to reach Supernova or Supernova Elite (I'm not saying all this because I'm getting paid to do so, which I'm not. This is just my personal perspective based on personal experience, so take it all with a pinch of salt).

Another aspect of multi-tabling is tracking. As you reach the higher stakes, tracking software becomes essential in aggregating your win rate (BB/100), hands per hour, income over time etc. Some players also used the Heads Up Display (HUD) to show opponent's playing statistics with VPIP (Voluntary Put In Pot), PFR (Pre Flop Raise), CBP (Continuation Bet Percentage), FCBP (Fold to Continuation Bet Percentage) being some of the stats likely to be used. These stats makes for easier decision making when you're multi-tabling and don't have time to observe your opponent's play.

Table and seating arrangement is very important as well. The less clutter there is, the easier and quicker it is for you to focus on what matters. With PokerStars, you can easily set the preferred seat location (I usually used the seat directly south) so your hole cards always appear at the same spot, making it easy for you to see and act. As for table arrangement, I used to tile the table across my monitor. The advantage of this is that you will be able to see all your tables at once, and pre-click a lot of hands you would like to fold, which saves time. However, since you're viewing multiple tables at once, the tables are much smaller, and if you play many tables, it becomes hard to focus. The best way imho (the method I'm using right now) would be to set your tables to automatically pop-up when action is on to you, and stack all your tables in the same location, one on top of another. This would mean that you never know what is going on once you've made a decision as the next table waiting on the list would pop-up after you've clicked (raise/check/fold) and you would not know the outcome till much later. This is not a bad thing though, as it forces you to make the best decision in that particular situation, based on pot odds, probabilities and stack sizes.

Hope this gives an insight on how multi-tabling is done online. I'm currently playing about 15-20 tables of SnGs at a time, with a win rate of about 20%-30%. I will write more about how I make my decisions when playing mutil-tables, and how various circumstances affect my multi-table play in future articles. Till then, try your hand at multi-tabling. You may find it a lot easier than you think. Good luck!

APT Macau 09: Making Effective Bluffs

Bluffing is an integral part of poker, since you can't get premium hands all the time, and you can't always hit the flop even with your premium hands. I'm not going to even attempt to tell you how to bluff, seeing as its an art all by itself, and I'm still trying to master the art! I will, however, try to surmise what I can on the subject based on personal experience.

Playing in the APT Macau 2009, I made two major bluffs that helped me make my chip stack what it was at the end of the day. The very first bluff was in a four-way pot, middle of the day when the blinds and antes were starting to become significant. I was on the small blind with Tc7s, a tight player to my left on the big blind with a relatively short stack, a somewhat loose fit or fold player as UTG, and J.C Tran to my right on the button, also with a short stack. UTG smooth calls and action folds over to J.C Tran who also makes the call. The two calls plus antes, with only one more player left to act behind me, gives me great pot odds to make the call. Big blind checked, and the dealer placed Jc6s5s on the flop. I missed the flop completely with no probable draws, so I checked, and big blind then bets out a small bet of only one fourth the pot. UTG folds, and J.C Tran calls.

At this point, I read big blind for a J or a 6 with a strong kicker, and J.C Tran for possible flush or straight draw. This put me in a good position for a squeeze play. I raised a very significant amount, about 5 times the bet of the initial raise, in an attempt to squeeze out either the big blind or J.C Tran. Big blind thinks for some time, then calls, J.C Tran folds. The turn comes an 8h, which gives me a gutshot straight draw. Since the big blind was pretty short stacked, I bet half his stack, he folded, and I showed the bluff.

What made this bluff successful? There were a few factors coming together that made this work. First was the tight image, and the short stack of the big blind. With his stack, he is unlikely to make a move in the tournament, since he's got a limited amount to work with. UTG missed the flop, and was out of position with two more players to act behind him, so calling with even middle pair was not an option. J.C Tran with a short stack, very likely had a decent pair or draw, and with the fantastic pot odds offered to him by the big blind, had to make the call. In my position, making the check-raise, I also used J.C Tran's pro-image to my advantage. Big blind could not have failed to consider the fact that I checked-raised into two players, and one of them a pro player which would mean that I probably had a very strong hand, possibly limping in with small pockets and making my set. With the check-raise, and call by a tight player, J.C Tran could not make the call. The second barrel, very likely forced the big blind to consider the fact that he would very likely have to commit his whole stack by the river, which, compounded by the fact that he was short-stacked, prompted him to fold.

The second bluff was made later in the day, against the tight solid player (from the previous article, in the 77 vs 88 hand) with a relatively short stack, and another deep stacker who just moved over to our table. Tight solid player was UTG, and I was on the button with AKo, out-stacking the UTG and the new player on UTG+2. UTG raised 3xBB, and Johnny Chan to his left folds. The new player who just joined our table raised almost 3.5 times the initial raise, and action folds over to me. I have a very solid hand, but it might not be good against a raise, re-raise. I however, have an excellent position, being last to act on the button with decent odds, so I made the call. Everyone else folds to UTG who thinks for some time, then makes the call, which signaled weakness and a possible hand of small pocket pairs. The flop comes all under 9 and I completely missed again. UTG checks, UTG+2 checks and action was on me.

At this point, I read the situation as a possible slow-play by UTG, calling with pockets and hitting a set, or having smaller pockets with one or two over cards on the flop. UTG+2 almost definitely missed as he was the final aggressor pre-flop, and there would be almost no made hand that he would check after a flop like that. The pot was huge with all the action pre-flop, almost two thirds my stack, and definitely worth making an attempt at. Since I out-stacked both players, I was in no danger of busting, and if I read my opponents correctly, the most I could lose would be the stack of UTG which wouldn't cripple me. Even if I was behind, I would still very likely have outs if an Ace or King came. A small bet of even half the pot would commit me and any callers, so I decided to go all-in for maximum fold equity. UTG thinks for a long time, then folds, and UTG+2 also does the same after much consideration, flipping over AKs!

In this scenario, both the short stack of UTG and the deep stack of UTG+2 worked to my advantage. UTG had to consider putting in all his chips on a possible small pair hand, and with a re-raiser behind him left to act, could not make the call. UTG+2 had AKs, but could not make the call as any pair would leave him with only 6 outs, costing him the tournament if he missed. As even a call of the raise, re-raise preflop indicated a lot of strength, both players must have read me for a decent pair, possibly TT or JJ.

So, in summary, both scenarios had similar conditions. Both involved squeeze plays on short stack players. Both placed the players involved in a decision for all their stack, and both involved showing a lot of strength either pre-flop or on the flop and a strong follow-up bet. In the first scenario, strength was shown with an out of position check-raise and bet on the next street. The second scenario illustrates how you can show strength, even without a raise pre-flop as even a flat call of a raise, large re-raise, generally indicates a huge hand. There were also no showdowns in both scenarios, which meant that even if I was holding 72o, the results would have been the same.

Hope this article helps in the much debated topic of bluffing in Texas Hold'em. As always, comments and feedback are appreciated!

APT Macau 09: Fine Line Between Good Reads and Bad Play

Haven't written much at all last month, and that was because I attended the APT Macau 2009, made day one chip lead, and lost it all in a span of two hours out of the money. Enough to drive anyone to quit poker, well, at least for a while. Not to say that it wasn't a fantastic experience. Grinding out the cash games, meeting great players and interesting people, and of course, playing to qualify for the main event in 3 satellites, making the final table in all three and only qualifying through the very last chance satellites... definitely an experience to remember.

In any case, I've recovered sufficiently to share several hands I played personally in the tournament that I felt was an interesting observation in demonstrating the fine line between good reads and bad play. The very first would be a hand played in the bounty side event against Liz Lieu, who like various Poker Pack members had a bounty of HKD 2.5k on her head. I was UTG with JJ, and raised to 3.5xBB, action folding all the way to Liz in late position who re-raised to 2.5x my raise. I joined the tournament relatively late, so Liz had already accumulated enough chips to out stack me. At that point, a re-raise would not be sufficient for me to release a premium hand like JJ, so I did a light 3-bet of 2.5x her raise, committing about one third of my stack in the process. To my surprise, Liz made a min raise which would force me to commit half my stack if I were to call. I put her on a big pair, but called anyway in the hopes of hitting a set on the flop due to good pot odds. Flop came rainbow, all under 9, I checked, she fired once more and I folded, revealing my Jacks in the process. She asked me in a very surprised manner how I could fold that kind of hand on a flop like that.

I had the opportunity to ask her when she eventually fell to aces later in the tournament about the hand, and she told me in a laughing voice that I should have called. I guess my Jacks were good there, but she played her position and stack advantage in a manner that gave me the decision of placing all my chips on Jacks, or waiting for a better opportunity. I had the honor of making the acquaintance of J.C Tran later in the main event (eventual winner of the bounty event), playing directly on his left, and I asked his opinion on the hand. He told me that he was of the opinion that she had me beat, and folding was not a bad play. What do you readers think?

After qualifying for Day 1B through the last chance satellite, I was placed directly on the left of J.C Tran, and got AdJd for my fourth hand in UTG+1. J.C Tran, who was relatively short stack raised UTG to 2.5xBB, and I decided to be aggressive and re-raised to 3x his raise. The raise succeeded in isolating him, and action folded back to J.C who smooth called. Flop came QXX, and I miss completely, not even having a back door flush draw. He checks, and I fire a continuation bet of roughly 1/3 of the pot which he calls. Turn comes another blank, and I continue my aggression, firing yet another 1/3 of the pot which he calls again. At this point, I had no doubt that he had the Q, and I might be drawing dead to a hand like AQ. River comes an Ace, and he checks yet again. There was no real possibility of a straight or flush on the board, but reading him for AQ, I checked behind. He flipped over KQo, and was frustrated to see that I caught the Ace on the river. He told me later that he was short-stacked, so was content to check-call all the way to the river, and very likely would have called a value bet on the river. A bad read on my part not to value bet? Note that I only bet when I was way behind, and checked when I was actually in front.

This other hand happened on the very same table, about 30 minutes after Johnny Chan joined the table (I know! Playing with the legend, how awesome is that!). I got 88 in early position and raised to 2.5xBB, hoping to steal the blinds which were getting pretty significant at that point. A solid tight player in middle position 3-bet light, and everyone else folds to me and I call. Flop comes J56 rainbow, I checked and he went all-in and this surprised me. I observed his play earlier and noticed that he never risked all his stack, even with a hand like AK top pair top kicker. I out-stacked him, but would be severely crippled by 2/3rds of my stack if I called and he had 99 or better. It was the hand just before the dinner break and J.C Tran said in with a laugh that I should take my time to think so they could go off for dinner. Another guy came by while I was agonizing over my decision, asking Johnny Chan to go with them for dinner, but he said he wanted to see the hand first (cool huh!). I finally decided to call due to the abnormality of his play and he shows 77, my eights held up to double me up. Coming back from dinner, I was lauded for a great call by the table (including the two great players, need I mention their names again :) ), but I was thinking how close it was, and the risk I placed my entire tournament on. Good call? You decide.

Final hand, one that significantly contributed to my crashing out without the money on the second day. I got KhTh in middle position and raised to 2.5xBB with a slightly diminished stack from Day 1, and David Steike (Aussie Millions event 8 winner) who out-stacked me called from SB, everyone else folds. Flop comes Qh7h5h, giving me the K high flush. David checks, I bet a heavier than usual bet of half the pot, and he calls. Turn shows a 6c and David checks again. I bet half the pot again, and to my surprise, David raises me 3.5x my raise, a very significant raise that would commit a total of 30k of my 80k chip stack if I were to call. I was still confident with my hand, as I would only lose to an Ace-high flush. He played the hand like how he would play a set of fives or sevens, and I resolved to put all my chips in on the river unless another hearts came or the board paired, so I called. The river comes a 6s and David fires 20k into the pot out of position, and suddenly I was in a dilemma. If he had the set, he just made a boat. I had the option of trusting in my reads and folding my K-high flush, cutting my losses, or calling and leaving me with 30k (one third of what I started the day with) if my reads were right. I thought for a long time, and decided to choose the former, but it was a tough fold. I never found out what he had, so I leave it to you readers for your opinions on the play. Good fold? Let me know in the comments section.

Hope this shows the intensity of some of the decisions made through out the tournament, and the fine line between good reads and bad play. When does calling down with middle / bottom pair become a good read, and when does it become bad play? When does laying down a flopped K high flush become a good read or bad play?

I'll write more about my APT experiences in future articles, so till then, stay tuned!