Giving Up

No, I’m not giving up poker. Quite the opposite. What I am learning to give up however, are two things during the game of poker, made hands, and bluffs.

I wrote the above 2 months ago as an opener for an article I had in mind, then forgot all about it. Not too long ago though, there was this hand I was involved in that reminded me of why I wanted to write about this again.

This happened in a live game at the Poker Empire. I was holding ATs in late position on the cut-off. Mid position raised to 4x BB, and I decided to be a bit more aggressive and 3-bet him to 12xBB. All limpers folded and we see a flop of AQ8. This was a dream flop for me as Q8 were of the same suit as my hole cards, so I had a pair of aces and a flush draw. Original raiser checks to me, and I bet slightly less than 2/3rds the pot, and he calls. Turn comes a K which makes my nut flush. He checks again, and I again bet 2/3rds of the pot which he calls. At this point, I read him for a pair of Qs on the flop, making two pair on the turn with a KQ holding, or he could have been holding an ace like AJ or smaller. The river then comes another K and he suddenly makes a bet of 2/5th the pot. This was in-line with my read of KQ, but I found it hard to lay down my hand. I had incredible value to call, and my hand beats almost another other possible hand he could have been holding except AK, which was extremely unlikely. I made the call, and he flips over KQ to take down the pot.

This could have been labeled as a cooler, and I would usually just write it off as something that could not be avoided. Not now though. Playing based on reads is a very important skill in poker. Without hand reading, you would only be playing your own hands. And since you would only be making a hand about 30% of the time, and making a better hand than your opponent even less, you would actually be losing more money than you’d be making if you only played your own hands.

In this particular scenario, I could have saved myself some money by folding my flush to a more than probable full house. Losing as little as you can when you’re behind, while winning the most that you can while you’re in front is the key to profitable poker.

Another thing I am working on giving up is bluffs. There are times when double or triple barrel bluffs are profitable, and those times are rare. Have you ever been in a situation where you keep firing, but your opponent just won’t fold? These are times you should look back to see if your bluffs made sense. When ever you try to make a bluff, your opponent should feel that he cannot beat your hand and fold. If you can’t make your opponent believe that, your bluffs are bound to be non-profitable. Pick your spots to bluff, and don’t just push money in the pot and hope that your opponent will fold.

Till next time, may you always give up when you should!

Avoid Building Pots…

With small holdings. I was tilting again 3 days ago (and I thought I’d kicked the habit) and this friend told me, “stop building big pots with your small hands”, or something to that effect, and that phrase registered with me like it hadn’t before.

We need to first define what is meant by a small hand/holding. Based on personal experience, this would mean a pair or smaller. This includes over-pairs, though they are obviously stronger. When a pot gets to a certain size in relation to the effective size of the stacks in play, the hands you showdown with should improve relatively. Effective stack is a term usually used to refer to the smallest, most relevant, stack of a player remaining in the hand. For example, if UTG raises with a stack of 2k behind, and action folds to button with a 1k stack, who calls and everyone else folds, the effective stack involved would be 1k.

This was a hand I played a week ago in a live cash game. The game has been going on for about 2 hours and I have been raising aggressively on the button, showing down some mediocre hands. The button came around to me again, and I got AsKs, with a live straddle in effect. There were a couple of limpers before action was on me, and I made a raise to 6xBB. The blinds folded, UTG (straddle) calls, and the first limper folds while the second limper calls. UTG is a hyper-maniac who plays and raises any two cards from any position, second limper is a solid TAG who generally plays online more than live games (coincidentally the same friend who told me told me to avoid building big pots with small hands).

My stack size was roughly 200BB, while UTG had 250BB and TAG had 170BB. The flop comes Ad9d7c, and action was checked to me. I made my standard continuation bet of 3/4ths the pot, and UTG folds while TAG calls. An 8s comes on the turn, and TAG bets 1/2 the pot, about 30BB. At this point, the remaining effective stacks were about 110BB, should I choose to call that 30BB bet. With his general style of play, he would not have bet into me with a mere pair, but would probably have check-called. Thus the only likely hands he would have been holding considering the flop call would be A8, 98 or JT. All three hands have me beat badly; my AK hand would technically only be able to beat a bluff. I shoved all-in and he calls. He shows 98 to take down the pot.

While my hand had decent showdown equity, I believe calling the turn bet would be a bad play. With a hyper-aggressive player like UTG, AK would generally have been good enough to play for a large pot, but when you’re up against a solid TAG, and he’s betting into you after your initial aggression, chances are good that you’re behind. While raising all-in maximizes fold equity there, the effective stacks weren’t deep enough to force a fold from a hand as strong as two pair. In fact, considering my aggressive image on the button, effective stacks would have to be massive to force a fold from two pair. Thus, raising all-in was also a bad play. The only available move should be to fold.

With this in mind, folding over pairs like Aces or Kings becomes easier (but not by much, at least for me!). I used to like to think that when I get Aces or Kings, I just want to get all my money in regardless of the flop turn or river, because I should statistically win 70-80% of the time. These hands are only superior preflop, and if all the money goes in preflop, you should win or lose with no regrets. After the flop however, the hands have to be re-evaluated for equity, taking into consideration your position, your opponent’s position, effective stacks, pot size etc.

Till next time, may you always showdown in big pots with massive made hands!

Making Hands

I just had a discussion with a friend yesterday on the subject of playing to make hands in poker. This friend plays a lot of online poker, and is a profitable player. There are a lot of poker players who just sit and wait around for hands like AJ or KQ, and then raise or call, see the flop and then depending on how well their hand hits, make further decisions from there. These players might turn out to be profitable, depending on how successful they are in getting their opponents to pay them off on their made hands. The problem with this strategy is that making hands is not a common occurrence, and these players lose money on hands that they miss and subsequently fold.

There aren’t many loose passive players online, and these are the type of players that you can expect to pay you off if you play to make hands. This generally results in a break-even or even a losing record for players who play to make hands (Fit or Fold players) online, simply because they aren’t getting paid off on their hands, while losing money consistently to hands that they don’t hit and the rake. Sites like Poker Stars give significant rake-back to players who play a lot of hands at higher stakes (ranked supernova or supernova elite), but how many players get to those ranks?

Fact is, in the game of poker, your two pocket/hole cards don’t matter until you finally showdown on the river. What matters before the showdown is what your opponent might be holding, your table image, your opponent’s table image, you and your opponent stack sizes, the money in the pot, and finally, your position relative to your opponent. Players who play to make hands simply ignore these important factors in the game, at least until they make a hand, which actually mean that they rely more on luck, i.e. they are gambling. Of course, there are times when playing to make hands is necessary. E.g. when you’re up against a loose passive player, and, that’s it I think. If any of you readers can think of more situations where playing to make hands is necessary, please comment.

How does one not play to make hands? Here’s an example in a recent online game I played. I was holding AcTc on a NL100 6-max table, sitting on the cutoff. The player to my right had stats of 38/25 which meant that he’s a loose aggressive player. My own stats were 15/12. My stack size was about $130, and he had $150 or thereabouts, so we were pretty even. Action was checked to him pre-flop, and he raised 3xBB. I decided to re-raise him and made it $9. Action folded over to him who flat called. The flop comes Kd9d8h, with suits different to the one I was holding, so I completely missed the flop, and had no draw. He checks, and I made a c-bet of $12 into a $19.50 pot. He makes a min-raise, which made the existing pot $55.50, a very nice pot. I had slightly more than $90 left in my stack, about the same as what he had since he put in $12 more than me. I decided to go for it, and raised to $40. He folded and I took down the pot.

A player who plays to make hands would do things very differently if they were in my situation. They would have called pre-flop, whiffed, and folded to any decently sized bet on the flop. Of course, they would only have risked $3, instead of $61 (half my stack), but think of it in a different context. Passive calling gives you no information on what your opponent might have. Say the flop comes AdKd7h, and your opponent makes a pot sized c-bet. Since you already made your hand, you would probably re-raise, and say the opponent 3-bets you. What do you do then? AT here is crushed by AJ, AQ, AK and A7, AA, KK and 77. It’s also only about even money against a pair plus flush draw, and only really beats a smaller Ace or flush draw. Most Fit or Fold players would not be able to fold here. They finally make a hand, but face a 3-bet. They would then call the 3-bet, and face enormous pressure to call all subsequent bets, possibly putting your whole stack on the line instead of only half your stack.

Note that this situation is not fictional, and occurs very often in a game of poker. A lot of experienced regulars online would make that 3-bet on the flop simply because its profitable to do so against a player who only plays to make hands. Every time that player folds, its instant profit. If that player goes over the top, it’s very easy to for them to fold since they can recover that loss in subsequent hands using the same line of play.

Hopefully this gives you an idea of how to play a more imaginative game. As always, comments and feedback are appreciated. Till next time, may you not play to make hands, but make your hand just the same!

Reflections…

Took a short break from poker over the weekend. Reasons being, a night out clubbing resulting in a significant hangover the next day, and… some losses the day before due to inconsistent and just overall bad play. Gave me time to do stuff I’ve not been doing for a while, and of course, some time to reflect on my play.

I’ve always played a loose aggressive style of poker. So much so that almost everyone who’ve played with me has tagged me accordingly, and generally employ passive tactics against me in the hopes that I will bluff the pot (which I generally do!), and pay them off. Of course, when I run good and make my hands, people pay me off handsomely, but more often than not, it’s the other way around. Why? Simply because I’m a poor player, and generally make poor calls and bad decisions, some of them so obvious that when I look back, I wonder why I make them.

The LAG (Loose AGressive) play-style is a viable one in poker, but it takes a lot more skill to play successfully. In fact, it’s not just skill that matters but discipline, and proper bankroll management. I lack all three. Poker is not about gambling. I’ve said it many times, and I’ll say it again. Problem is, most poker players gamble, and that’s the bottom-line. The profitable ones don’t. I’ve recently read an article that said, playing poker is like being a fund manager. You “invest” in profitable situations, and avoid the high risk decisions that may involve significant losses. You avoid risking your capital (bankroll).

To play poker successfully, one should know one’s capabilities. Like a fund manager, a skilled one with foresight would make investments that would seem risky to his peers less adept than himself, while the less skilled would typically invest in rock solid, profitable ventures. Similarly in poker, skilled players may opt to play the LAG style, simply because they can manage the risks better, while their less adept counterparts just play TAG (Tight AGressive). I belong to the latter group.

What this means, is that upon reflection, I’ve not the skill required to play the style that I play now. That said, I will attempt to stick to the TAG style of play from now on, at least for a couple of months, to see if it makes a difference. Let’s see how long I stick to this resolution!

On and Off

Just finished a very mixed session of poker. Mixed in that I played both online and offline, both using the same strategies (at least initially for the offline play) and ended up with extremely different results, the strategy used being BSS. I made a significant loss in the live games, while enjoying a significant profit in the online counterpart.

Lesson learnt (that I realized much earlier, but apparently needed a refresher); Online poker and live poker are extremely, and I mean extremely different. Maybe it’s just because of my personality; a little hot tempered, and very impatient. These are two traits that are very bad for a poker player, simply because they are the exact formula for tilt. Suck-outs and bad play make me lose my temper, the latter being targeted at myself. Bad hands or flops, slow dealing and lengthy hands make me impatient. And together, both make me lose due to tilt plays.

My live game losses were only due to two major hands, both of which could be avoided. I was not getting any hands for about 3 orbits, and finally caught KJo, but was in early position. The BSS dictates that this hand should be folded, but I had gotten impatient after getting no hands, and decided to limp to see the flop. As usual, another 5 limpers called behind and the blinds checked. The flop came KQ6, two clubs, and small blind checks. Big blind over-bets the pot and action was on me. I frequently play with Big Blind, who’s a regular in the live games I play, and he has a tendency to play draws very strongly. I decide to raise with my Kings, and 3 bet him for 3.5 times his raise. Everyone else folded, and Big Blind says he’s all in.

I made several significant mistakes here. First of all, I failed to observe his stack, the remnant of which was smaller than my raise if he called. Secondly, his position as Big Blind gives me almost no information on his hand, him having checked, and thus could be holding almost any two cards, including K6 or Q6, both of which have me crushed. I then compounded both errors by thinking I was committed to the pot by calling the all-in, forgetting that in previous encounters, he hardly ever moves all in with a weak hand. I lost 3/4ths of my stack to Q6.

The second loss was when I had AQs in middle position. I raised and the guy to my immediate left raised 3x my initial raise. He’s generally a loose player, playing almost any two suited cards from any position but only aggressive when he does have a hand. I should have folded the AQs, being out of position and likely dominated, but once again, I have had very few hands, and the earlier bad play I made was making me impatient to win a big pot. I called. The flop came 554, two diamonds, which gave me 2 overs and a flush draw. I decided to play this slowly to gain more information, and checked. He bet half the pot, and I decided to 3 bet him to see if he had a pair or was simply betting with AK. He went all-in, and I snap-called, a huge mistake. The pot was barely giving me 1 to 1 odds, and I was 50/50 at best against a pair under Q, and a huge underdog with any other higher pair that he would make that move with. He had Jacks, which held up to take my entire stack.

Rebuilt my stack somewhat later on when I loosened up and played more hands, but made money on good plays and reads. The last hand of the day was an extreme cooler hand where I had straddled, and the guy on my left double straddled. I caught Kings, but the guy on my left had Aces and I lost a large pot (though not as large as it could have been).

Heading home feeling very frustrated, but aware of my mistakes, I decided to continue grinding it out online. I profited 4 buy-ins in 2 hours, playing 21 tables of NL50 using BSS, and that was even though I encountered 3 huge cooler hands which involved set over sets. That’s a BB/100 of about 10 for this session alone!

Fact is, BSS doesn’t work with live games. Playing too tightly gives you no action when you have monsters, and makes you lose a lot on beats, suck-outs and bad plays. Online games differ simply because you see so many more hands online, up to several hundred times more in my case, and thus, you make a decent profit just by winning blinds alone. Live games are so slow that you barely see 25 hands per hour, and you typically need to make money in that 25 hands or you’re just wasting a lot of time. You’d be better off waiting tables to make a living. This means that you have to loosen up, play more aggressively and read more accurately. This also leads me to believe that a profitable live game player is very much more skilled than his online counterpart, since it requires looser play (high margin for error) and accurate reads.

I learnt many lessons today. Seems like everyday I play poker brings new lessons to learn, some really expensive ones. I guess the key is not to have to learn the lesson twice.

Plugging away…

Couldn’t join a big local tourney that’s on going right now due to a player cap the organizers imposed on the event, so am entertaining myself joining online tournaments on PokerStars and Fulltilt. Got a whole bunch of friends playing at the event though, hope they do well…

It’s a good time to reflect a bit on my tourney play though. In a $26 tournament on Fulltilt, I was doing pretty well with an average chip stack early in the tournament. Got AKo on the button and cutoff raised to 4xBB. I decided to play it passively and flat called. Everyone else folded and it was me and him to the flop. Flop came AsTh9h, and cutoff bet 2/3rds the pot. I flat called and the turn came a Kh, which gave me top two pair. Cutoff checked, and I bet 1/3rd of the pot. He called and the river came an 8h. He shoved all in. I folded.

I probably played it horribly wrong from the flop, but I was thinking to wait till the turn before making any decisive actions. Sigh. Poker hasn’t been too kind to me. Raised again from the button later with ATs and got a call from big blind and an earlier limper. Flop came KQ5 and action was checked to me. I was short-stacked, slightly more than the pot, so I shoved all in. Limper calls with 54o.

Joined yet another tournament, and lost when I raised with KK, got a caller on the button and the flop came 679. I bet heavily and he called. Turn came a 2, and I went all in for 2/3rds of the pot. He calls with a set of 7s.

What am I doing wrong….

When You're Meant To Lose

Have you ever been dealt a hand when you're predestined to lose from the get go? How do you cut or avoid losses in hands like that? The worst thing is when it happens when you're already down. It feels like a punch to the gut, and you're left wondering when it will end.

I play very regularly in a live game at a poker room where I live. Games there are generally very loose and aggressive, usually played at the $2/$5 stakes. This particular hand happened just last night on a full ring table, between 3 players, 2 of them extremely loose players (calling raises with 62o!) and another who would almost always play any two suited cards from any position (this isn't considered loose in that room!). Of the two loose players, one of them (Player A) is usually very aggressive, raising with almost any two cards while the other (Player B) plays a more passive game, only becoming aggressive after the flop. Pre-flop action was the usual limping from early position, followed by a 5xBB raise from Player A in mid position. 3 players after him folds, button calls, Player B in the small blind calls, and the big blind and initial limpers all call.

Flop came 2sTs5s, and action was checked to Player A who bet 5xBB. Button makes the call and Player B thinks then raises to 5 times the raise of Player A. With such a huge raise, it was almost certain that Player B had a made hand, at least 2 pair or better. Surprisingly, Player A and button flat calls, and the dealer dealt a 6h on the turn. Player B checks, Player A bets 20xBB (a minuscule bet compared to the pot), button calls and Player B instantly goes all in. Player A instantly calls and button goes all in immediately, flipping over the nut flush with As9s. Imagine the shock of everyone else at the table when both Player A and Player B flip over K high and J high flush! River, a 9c, was irrelevant as both players were drawing dead to the nut flush.

Imagine that! All three players flopped the flush, all three were slow playing, and all three thought the other was drawing to a flush (players in this room generally go for draws regardless of pot odds). This was the sickest cooler hand I ever saw, and I've definitely seen my share. How do you escape from losing the maximum with hands like the K high and J high flush? I remember a very similar scenario about 5 months back, of which I was on the receiving end. I had Ks9s in early position, UTG limped in, and I followed suit. A few other limpers came in as well, and the flop came three spades, no ace (I forgot the actual cards as it was such a long time ago). Blinds and UTG checks, I check, and one of the limpers made a 1/3 pot raise. UTG flat calls, and I re-raised to 4x the initial raise. Everyone else folds, including the initial raiser, but UTG calls. Turn comes another spade, and UTG checks, I bet, he goes all-in, and I knew he had the Ace, but I couldn't fold it and called. He showed pocket aces.

I think the simple "moral" of these hands would be - never play any two suited cards unless they are the nuts. Drawing to anything other than the nut flush or straight would potentially lose you a lot of money as making your hand would be tantamount to trapping yourself with the second best hand. This is why playing with any two suited cards is so dangerous. There was a similar hand that night where I also made a two hole card flush, but lost the maximum to the nut flush. This really sounds like a lot of bad poker, and it is. Embarrassing to tell, but one can only learn from such experiences.

Any of you readers have similar experiences? Let me know in the comments section. Cheers!

APT Macau 09: Fine Line Between Good Reads and Bad Play

Haven't written much at all last month, and that was because I attended the APT Macau 2009, made day one chip lead, and lost it all in a span of two hours out of the money. Enough to drive anyone to quit poker, well, at least for a while. Not to say that it wasn't a fantastic experience. Grinding out the cash games, meeting great players and interesting people, and of course, playing to qualify for the main event in 3 satellites, making the final table in all three and only qualifying through the very last chance satellites... definitely an experience to remember.

In any case, I've recovered sufficiently to share several hands I played personally in the tournament that I felt was an interesting observation in demonstrating the fine line between good reads and bad play. The very first would be a hand played in the bounty side event against Liz Lieu, who like various Poker Pack members had a bounty of HKD 2.5k on her head. I was UTG with JJ, and raised to 3.5xBB, action folding all the way to Liz in late position who re-raised to 2.5x my raise. I joined the tournament relatively late, so Liz had already accumulated enough chips to out stack me. At that point, a re-raise would not be sufficient for me to release a premium hand like JJ, so I did a light 3-bet of 2.5x her raise, committing about one third of my stack in the process. To my surprise, Liz made a min raise which would force me to commit half my stack if I were to call. I put her on a big pair, but called anyway in the hopes of hitting a set on the flop due to good pot odds. Flop came rainbow, all under 9, I checked, she fired once more and I folded, revealing my Jacks in the process. She asked me in a very surprised manner how I could fold that kind of hand on a flop like that.

I had the opportunity to ask her when she eventually fell to aces later in the tournament about the hand, and she told me in a laughing voice that I should have called. I guess my Jacks were good there, but she played her position and stack advantage in a manner that gave me the decision of placing all my chips on Jacks, or waiting for a better opportunity. I had the honor of making the acquaintance of J.C Tran later in the main event (eventual winner of the bounty event), playing directly on his left, and I asked his opinion on the hand. He told me that he was of the opinion that she had me beat, and folding was not a bad play. What do you readers think?

After qualifying for Day 1B through the last chance satellite, I was placed directly on the left of J.C Tran, and got AdJd for my fourth hand in UTG+1. J.C Tran, who was relatively short stack raised UTG to 2.5xBB, and I decided to be aggressive and re-raised to 3x his raise. The raise succeeded in isolating him, and action folded back to J.C who smooth called. Flop came QXX, and I miss completely, not even having a back door flush draw. He checks, and I fire a continuation bet of roughly 1/3 of the pot which he calls. Turn comes another blank, and I continue my aggression, firing yet another 1/3 of the pot which he calls again. At this point, I had no doubt that he had the Q, and I might be drawing dead to a hand like AQ. River comes an Ace, and he checks yet again. There was no real possibility of a straight or flush on the board, but reading him for AQ, I checked behind. He flipped over KQo, and was frustrated to see that I caught the Ace on the river. He told me later that he was short-stacked, so was content to check-call all the way to the river, and very likely would have called a value bet on the river. A bad read on my part not to value bet? Note that I only bet when I was way behind, and checked when I was actually in front.

This other hand happened on the very same table, about 30 minutes after Johnny Chan joined the table (I know! Playing with the legend, how awesome is that!). I got 88 in early position and raised to 2.5xBB, hoping to steal the blinds which were getting pretty significant at that point. A solid tight player in middle position 3-bet light, and everyone else folds to me and I call. Flop comes J56 rainbow, I checked and he went all-in and this surprised me. I observed his play earlier and noticed that he never risked all his stack, even with a hand like AK top pair top kicker. I out-stacked him, but would be severely crippled by 2/3rds of my stack if I called and he had 99 or better. It was the hand just before the dinner break and J.C Tran said in with a laugh that I should take my time to think so they could go off for dinner. Another guy came by while I was agonizing over my decision, asking Johnny Chan to go with them for dinner, but he said he wanted to see the hand first (cool huh!). I finally decided to call due to the abnormality of his play and he shows 77, my eights held up to double me up. Coming back from dinner, I was lauded for a great call by the table (including the two great players, need I mention their names again :) ), but I was thinking how close it was, and the risk I placed my entire tournament on. Good call? You decide.

Final hand, one that significantly contributed to my crashing out without the money on the second day. I got KhTh in middle position and raised to 2.5xBB with a slightly diminished stack from Day 1, and David Steike (Aussie Millions event 8 winner) who out-stacked me called from SB, everyone else folds. Flop comes Qh7h5h, giving me the K high flush. David checks, I bet a heavier than usual bet of half the pot, and he calls. Turn shows a 6c and David checks again. I bet half the pot again, and to my surprise, David raises me 3.5x my raise, a very significant raise that would commit a total of 30k of my 80k chip stack if I were to call. I was still confident with my hand, as I would only lose to an Ace-high flush. He played the hand like how he would play a set of fives or sevens, and I resolved to put all my chips in on the river unless another hearts came or the board paired, so I called. The river comes a 6s and David fires 20k into the pot out of position, and suddenly I was in a dilemma. If he had the set, he just made a boat. I had the option of trusting in my reads and folding my K-high flush, cutting my losses, or calling and leaving me with 30k (one third of what I started the day with) if my reads were right. I thought for a long time, and decided to choose the former, but it was a tough fold. I never found out what he had, so I leave it to you readers for your opinions on the play. Good fold? Let me know in the comments section.

Hope this shows the intensity of some of the decisions made through out the tournament, and the fine line between good reads and bad play. When does calling down with middle / bottom pair become a good read, and when does it become bad play? When does laying down a flopped K high flush become a good read or bad play?

I'll write more about my APT experiences in future articles, so till then, stay tuned!

Fit or Fold: Pt I - Identify

Poker has many different types of players, ranging from the loose aggressive, to the tight passive players, but those have been discussed to death since the dawn of mankind. Fit or Fold players though (hereby referred to as FoF), are a very different species. These players don't usually worry about what their opponent holds, but focus only on making their hand. Their general tendencies are loose passive pre-flop, aggressive if they hit the flop well, and generally fold to a bet if they don't connect.

Does this sound familiar? Yep, this is a genre usually linked with amateurs and beginners. In live or online games alike, these players are always welcome to any table because they are the easiest to profit from. Have you ever seen a player sit down at a poker table, and notice that after an hour or two, their chips have diminished significantly even though they've not been involved actively in many hands, and you wonder where their chips went? Observe them closely for an orbit or two, and you'll find them playing in the exact way that I described. Bleeding chips.

FoF players have a wide range pre-flop. They play with almost any two suited cards, especially those that include a face card. 2 and even 3 gap hole cards are not out of the question either. They call with these cards from any position, regardless of stack sizes or number or players involved in the pot. They "pay to see the flop", then fold to any bet if they miss. These kind of plays are theoretically a mathematical disaster, and I'll explain why.

Statistically, the chance for any two cards to make a pair is 32%. For two suited connector cards, the chance to make a flush draw or open ended straight draw is about 11%, and after that about 30% to complete the draw if play continues to the river. This sounds good until you realize that the chance for any two hole cards to miss the flop completely is more than 60%! This means that for any unpaired hole cards that are lower than your opponent's hole cards, you need good pot odds for these bets to be profitable in the long run.

For example, if the FoF player holds cards like J9s, and calls a raise against KQo, he's about a 3 to 1 underdog pre-flop. For this to be a profitable bet, he will need at least 2.5 to 1 odds (read about odds and percentages here). Change the FoF opponent's cards to a higher pair like QQ and you're looking at a minimum of 5 to 1 odds for the bet to be profitable. So, taking all that into consideration, imagine the effect on your stack if you call most bets only to fold more than 60% of the time on the flop! That's when you will hear complaints from these players saying that they are running bad, not even hitting the flop etc, when most of the time, their losses are just due to bad play.

The next article on this topic will be on ways to take advantage of these kind of players and benefit the most from them. Stay tuned. As always, comments are welcome and appreciated.

#1 Grinding It Up

My account hasn't been reinstated yet, apparently due to linked accounts needing verification. I guess it'll be a few days more before I get it back to normal. Thank God for family though. A close relative of mine was kind enough to loan me $200 just yesterday.

Moving back to $0.25/$0.50 stakes, playing Short Stack Strategy (with a bit of position stealing thrown in) on nine consecutive tables, I managed to make $86 in a couple of hours. Pretty good run, with very few errors. Stopped a while for dinner and returned happy after a good meal for more blind-stealing goodness, or so I thought. Started off moving into deficit (from the earlier profit) when several premium hands like AK missed the flop. Then came this particular hand, played on a $0.25/$0.50 table.

I was in mid position with KcKd, UTG with a VP of 45 and PR of 7 (very loose and passive) player calls, next player folds to me who raises to 5xBB. Everyone folds to UTG who calls. Flop comes Js10d4s, a pretty wet flop with multiple possible draws. UTG checks and I bet $3, slightly more than half the pot, which he calls. The call puts me on my guard as he could have likely hit J10 or could possibly be on a draw. A 4c comes on the turn, and he bets out with $4.50. At this point, since he could be playing almost any two cards, the 4 might have helped make his trips so I opt for the cautious route (pot control) and flat called. The final river card was 8s, which completes almost any straight or flush draw. He shoves all-in for my full stack of $24.05. I thought for a very long time, wondering if I could fold my KK, but called in the end, and he shows me Ks3s.

With hindsight, it was a very easy fold. I only had a pair of kings to several possible made hands like trips, straight or flush. A passive player like him would rarely shove all in on a move, which made it all the more likely that he either made his hand on the turn or river, both of which would have me crushed. I made several bad plays, first of which was not betting the pot on the flop, and the next, not re raising on the turn to find out if he did indeed have a 4.

That hand caused me to tilt a little, and I quickly lost most of my earlier profit. Some due to missed flops, some due to marginal calls. 2 hours of hard work back down the drain. I took a deep breath and told myself to calm down. Then started fresh with 3 tables, of $0.25/$0.50 6-max, short stacked. Started playing well again, stealing when I should, folding when I should, showing down when I should. Multiplied one table's buy-in by 9, another by 2, and the last by 1. Which gave me back my original profit. Grinded for yet another 2 hours today and made $103, allowing me to return the $200.

Start: -$646.78

Time Spent: 6 hrs

End: -$460.51

It's gonna be a long climb.

It Only Takes One

One bad play. That's it.

This is so embarrassing I can hardly bring myself to write this.

In the very same tournament from the previous post, blinds are 400/800 with 75 antes, I have 11,880 in my stack. 20 players left, 15 places gives entry to $100k tournament. I am UTG+1, with 9d8s, 7 players on the table. UTG folds, I look at my hand, and think since this table is pretty shorthanded, let me try stealing the blinds. I raise to 1.6k, player to my left thinks a while, then re raises to 3.2k. This player just suffered a big loss the previous hand, being chip-lead just moments ago. Everyone else folds, action to me.

I figured this guy might be making a move seeing as he could be steaming from the previous hand. I call. Flop comes 8c3s6d, I hit top pair and check, he bets 3.2k, effectively committing me if I call which gives me two options. Shove or fold. I choose the former, he shows me QQ and I bust out.

Where did I go wrong? First off, preflop, I should not have raised with such a marginal hand with 5 players left behind me to act. Second, I should have 3 bet if I thought he was steaming. A minimum raise would have shown me where I was at and it would have been easy enough to fold 98o. Calling out of position with a subpar hand was a horrendous play. Third, after calling and getting "lucky" on hitting top pair, I should have raised to see if he hit the flop or possibly have something better. A simple call from him would indicate a better hand since there are no probable draws on the board to match hands he would have re raised me with. A re raise would make it an easy fold.

I promised myself I would write this blog to analyze my own plays to stop myself from tilting and making bad plays, so this is the first, of probably many to come. 5 places away from payout with a higher than average stack and I blow it all away on 98o. Typical.

A New Bankroll

Bankroll management, a critical aspect of playing poker professionally. A skill I discovered I sorely lack, the hard way. Yes, ashamed as I am to admit it, as of yesterday, I have lost my entire bankroll. Lacking discipline, one will lose entire days of hard work in a matter of minutes when playing at stakes too high for their bankrolls.

Admitting one's failures is tough, but it keeps you from fooling yourself that you were the victim of downswings and luck, when the reality is that you made bad reads and horrendous plays.

PokerTracker is an amazing tool. It helps track everything, from basic wins and losses to stats like; how often you win with a certain hand from a given position. I will probably write about it in more detail, but for now, the feature that I will talk about is the graph "Money Won (Showdown and Non-Showdown) for Hands Played".

As of today, I have played 22,878 recorded hands of poker since I started using PokerTracker. This tool tells me that I started off making money through playing solid hands with good showdown equity, and lost money on attempted bluffs and steals. As I progressed, I became very much more proficient at stealing pots, but my showdown hands were becoming steadily inferior, so much so that the loss of my bankroll can be attributed to paying off too many better hands on the river.

I guess this in part has to do with the human psych; you start bluffing a lot and you think in turn that you are being bluffed all the time. When the swing began, it should have been obvious to me if I looked at this graph that there was a major leak in my game. Fact was that I ignored all the signs, and attributed the losses to bad beats, luck, downswings and idiotic opponents, when the actual cause was me.

Tempted as I am to portray myself as the victim of luck, I will choose the very last hand that I played that cost me the last of my bankroll to showcase my bad play. This was played on a $1/$2 6 max 50BB table. I was on the big blind with Qd6d. UTG & UTG+1 folds to cutoff who raises to $4. The button calls the $4 and so does SB. The button is a player with VP/PR of 56/35 in 79 hands, a very loose and aggressive player. I have watched him raise with garbage and play very aggressively to take down many pots. It was only $2 for me to call for a $14 pot, so I limped in to see the flop, which came 10s3dQc, giving me top pair on a rainbow flop. SB checks, and I check with a plan to check-raise. Cutoff checks to button who raises to $8, half the pot. SB folds and I raise to $24, cutoff folds. Button re raises to $114, which over bets my remaining stack of $68.70. The flop is relatively uncoordinated, with limp hands like KJ, Q10 and 33 as hands that would induce a 3-bet. QQ, JJ, 1010, 99, AQ and KQ are unlikely as the button, being a very aggressive player, would have re raised preflop. With such a low kicker, one would think that this is an easy fold, but I put him on a move and called. He had 33.

Thinking back, even if it was a move, I should have folded the hand. Of the 3 hands which would have induced a 3-bet, 2 had me crushed. It was less than 2 to 1 odds for my remaining stack and the only hand I could possibly beat would be KJ of which I would only be a 3 to 1 favourite.

Lesson learnt. Too late...

I will be rebuilding my bankroll with a re-deposit of $300. This will let me play at a maximum buy-in of $3, which would mean micro-stakes. A good lesson on discipline and patience.