Giving Up

No, I’m not giving up poker. Quite the opposite. What I am learning to give up however, are two things during the game of poker, made hands, and bluffs.

I wrote the above 2 months ago as an opener for an article I had in mind, then forgot all about it. Not too long ago though, there was this hand I was involved in that reminded me of why I wanted to write about this again.

This happened in a live game at the Poker Empire. I was holding ATs in late position on the cut-off. Mid position raised to 4x BB, and I decided to be a bit more aggressive and 3-bet him to 12xBB. All limpers folded and we see a flop of AQ8. This was a dream flop for me as Q8 were of the same suit as my hole cards, so I had a pair of aces and a flush draw. Original raiser checks to me, and I bet slightly less than 2/3rds the pot, and he calls. Turn comes a K which makes my nut flush. He checks again, and I again bet 2/3rds of the pot which he calls. At this point, I read him for a pair of Qs on the flop, making two pair on the turn with a KQ holding, or he could have been holding an ace like AJ or smaller. The river then comes another K and he suddenly makes a bet of 2/5th the pot. This was in-line with my read of KQ, but I found it hard to lay down my hand. I had incredible value to call, and my hand beats almost another other possible hand he could have been holding except AK, which was extremely unlikely. I made the call, and he flips over KQ to take down the pot.

This could have been labeled as a cooler, and I would usually just write it off as something that could not be avoided. Not now though. Playing based on reads is a very important skill in poker. Without hand reading, you would only be playing your own hands. And since you would only be making a hand about 30% of the time, and making a better hand than your opponent even less, you would actually be losing more money than you’d be making if you only played your own hands.

In this particular scenario, I could have saved myself some money by folding my flush to a more than probable full house. Losing as little as you can when you’re behind, while winning the most that you can while you’re in front is the key to profitable poker.

Another thing I am working on giving up is bluffs. There are times when double or triple barrel bluffs are profitable, and those times are rare. Have you ever been in a situation where you keep firing, but your opponent just won’t fold? These are times you should look back to see if your bluffs made sense. When ever you try to make a bluff, your opponent should feel that he cannot beat your hand and fold. If you can’t make your opponent believe that, your bluffs are bound to be non-profitable. Pick your spots to bluff, and don’t just push money in the pot and hope that your opponent will fold.

Till next time, may you always give up when you should!

Making Hands

I just had a discussion with a friend yesterday on the subject of playing to make hands in poker. This friend plays a lot of online poker, and is a profitable player. There are a lot of poker players who just sit and wait around for hands like AJ or KQ, and then raise or call, see the flop and then depending on how well their hand hits, make further decisions from there. These players might turn out to be profitable, depending on how successful they are in getting their opponents to pay them off on their made hands. The problem with this strategy is that making hands is not a common occurrence, and these players lose money on hands that they miss and subsequently fold.

There aren’t many loose passive players online, and these are the type of players that you can expect to pay you off if you play to make hands. This generally results in a break-even or even a losing record for players who play to make hands (Fit or Fold players) online, simply because they aren’t getting paid off on their hands, while losing money consistently to hands that they don’t hit and the rake. Sites like Poker Stars give significant rake-back to players who play a lot of hands at higher stakes (ranked supernova or supernova elite), but how many players get to those ranks?

Fact is, in the game of poker, your two pocket/hole cards don’t matter until you finally showdown on the river. What matters before the showdown is what your opponent might be holding, your table image, your opponent’s table image, you and your opponent stack sizes, the money in the pot, and finally, your position relative to your opponent. Players who play to make hands simply ignore these important factors in the game, at least until they make a hand, which actually mean that they rely more on luck, i.e. they are gambling. Of course, there are times when playing to make hands is necessary. E.g. when you’re up against a loose passive player, and, that’s it I think. If any of you readers can think of more situations where playing to make hands is necessary, please comment.

How does one not play to make hands? Here’s an example in a recent online game I played. I was holding AcTc on a NL100 6-max table, sitting on the cutoff. The player to my right had stats of 38/25 which meant that he’s a loose aggressive player. My own stats were 15/12. My stack size was about $130, and he had $150 or thereabouts, so we were pretty even. Action was checked to him pre-flop, and he raised 3xBB. I decided to re-raise him and made it $9. Action folded over to him who flat called. The flop comes Kd9d8h, with suits different to the one I was holding, so I completely missed the flop, and had no draw. He checks, and I made a c-bet of $12 into a $19.50 pot. He makes a min-raise, which made the existing pot $55.50, a very nice pot. I had slightly more than $90 left in my stack, about the same as what he had since he put in $12 more than me. I decided to go for it, and raised to $40. He folded and I took down the pot.

A player who plays to make hands would do things very differently if they were in my situation. They would have called pre-flop, whiffed, and folded to any decently sized bet on the flop. Of course, they would only have risked $3, instead of $61 (half my stack), but think of it in a different context. Passive calling gives you no information on what your opponent might have. Say the flop comes AdKd7h, and your opponent makes a pot sized c-bet. Since you already made your hand, you would probably re-raise, and say the opponent 3-bets you. What do you do then? AT here is crushed by AJ, AQ, AK and A7, AA, KK and 77. It’s also only about even money against a pair plus flush draw, and only really beats a smaller Ace or flush draw. Most Fit or Fold players would not be able to fold here. They finally make a hand, but face a 3-bet. They would then call the 3-bet, and face enormous pressure to call all subsequent bets, possibly putting your whole stack on the line instead of only half your stack.

Note that this situation is not fictional, and occurs very often in a game of poker. A lot of experienced regulars online would make that 3-bet on the flop simply because its profitable to do so against a player who only plays to make hands. Every time that player folds, its instant profit. If that player goes over the top, it’s very easy to for them to fold since they can recover that loss in subsequent hands using the same line of play.

Hopefully this gives you an idea of how to play a more imaginative game. As always, comments and feedback are appreciated. Till next time, may you not play to make hands, but make your hand just the same!

Stayin' Alive

We’ve often heard people say tournament play is different from cash games, but what exactly does that mean? How much different can cash games get, when you’re playing the exact same game? The cards don’t change. Your odds and outs in a particular hand don’t change.

What changes is the fact that blinds played are progressively increased. Imagine playing cash games with progressively increasing blinds! You could only play as long as your bankroll can sustain your blinds. The more blinds (forced bets) you have to make, the more the game becomes a gamble. In fact, thinking about it, a single tournament could be used to represent a player’s progression at poker, that is, if you had the choice of remaining at a certain blind level until you’re ready to move on.

When you’re forced to move up in blinds, the more it becomes necessary for you to recover your losses through forced bets. This means playing more hands, which would eventually mean that luck decides the outcome. When should you start playing more hands in a tournament? At the beginning, where the blinds don’t matter as much? Or towards the end when you’re forced to play hands due to a diminishing stack size?

The ultimate goal of a tournament is to stay “alive” as long as possible. The person who stays alive the longest, wins. This is the fundamental concept of a poker tournament, and one that most players fail to understand. Everyone tries to accumulate as many chips as possible, but in an inevitable situation in the tournament when you’re forced to make a decision for all your chips in a cooler situation (e.g. nut flush versus a possible full house), players ignore the goal of “staying alive” when making that decision.

How does staying alive factor into a poker decision? Simple. Imagine that you’re playing a tournament with actual money. Blinds increases periodically, and you don’t stop playing till the last man standing. You’re given a decision to go all in pre-flop when you’re holding Aces, but you’d be playing for all the money you have left in the world, with no chance of earning more. This would mean that if you lost (which you will, at least 20% of the time!), you will be relegated to permanent bankruptcy. Would you still take the risk with Aces?

I was playing a hand in an online tournament just yesterday. I was the shortest stack, with 13 players left in the game. Blinds were $25/$50, and my stack size was $900, less than 20 times the big blind. I got AQs on hi-jack, and made a standard raise of 3xBB. Action folds over to the player on the Big Blind who was playing a loose aggressive style, and was at that time, holding the largest stack with about $4000 in chips. He thought for a while, then shoved me all-in. Based on his play, the chances of him holding a better hand than mine was slim, and I made the call. Sure enough, he was holding JTo, and my odds to win was almost 65%. The flop comes J66, and he flops top pair, but I flopped a flush draw, with two over cards. Even with him holding top pair, I was still the favorite to win with a 52% chance. His Jacks held up to take down the pot, eliminating me in the process.

I knew I had the better hand, based on all the information available, but if I had thought about it in terms of actual cash, and going bankrupt, I would never have made that call. With 15 big blinds remaining, and 6 players on the table, I could still see about 60 hands before I’m forced to play for all my (remaining) “money”. A lot can happen in 60 hands.

In reverse, the “staying alive” factor can also be used to advance yourself in the tournament. Big blind played an aggressive strategy, forcing me to make a decision for all my chips while only risking a 25% of his stack. He had 35% to win $900 if I called, and 100% to win $225 if I folded. He only had to risk 25% of his stack. This was an excellent play, and plays like this win tournaments. He ended up placing 2nd.

There are a lot of ways to view this, and the sheer number of possibilities that could happen is what makes poker an extremely challenging game. Sure, it was technically a suck-out by the JTo, but if you think about it in relative terms (since everything is relative), Big Blind was playing at a 25% risk, while I was playing at a 100% risk. The odds to win the hand was in my favor, but the odds to win the tournament was in his favor!

Which would you rather win? Till next time, make your decisions like all your money depends on it!

On and Off

Just finished a very mixed session of poker. Mixed in that I played both online and offline, both using the same strategies (at least initially for the offline play) and ended up with extremely different results, the strategy used being BSS. I made a significant loss in the live games, while enjoying a significant profit in the online counterpart.

Lesson learnt (that I realized much earlier, but apparently needed a refresher); Online poker and live poker are extremely, and I mean extremely different. Maybe it’s just because of my personality; a little hot tempered, and very impatient. These are two traits that are very bad for a poker player, simply because they are the exact formula for tilt. Suck-outs and bad play make me lose my temper, the latter being targeted at myself. Bad hands or flops, slow dealing and lengthy hands make me impatient. And together, both make me lose due to tilt plays.

My live game losses were only due to two major hands, both of which could be avoided. I was not getting any hands for about 3 orbits, and finally caught KJo, but was in early position. The BSS dictates that this hand should be folded, but I had gotten impatient after getting no hands, and decided to limp to see the flop. As usual, another 5 limpers called behind and the blinds checked. The flop came KQ6, two clubs, and small blind checks. Big blind over-bets the pot and action was on me. I frequently play with Big Blind, who’s a regular in the live games I play, and he has a tendency to play draws very strongly. I decide to raise with my Kings, and 3 bet him for 3.5 times his raise. Everyone else folded, and Big Blind says he’s all in.

I made several significant mistakes here. First of all, I failed to observe his stack, the remnant of which was smaller than my raise if he called. Secondly, his position as Big Blind gives me almost no information on his hand, him having checked, and thus could be holding almost any two cards, including K6 or Q6, both of which have me crushed. I then compounded both errors by thinking I was committed to the pot by calling the all-in, forgetting that in previous encounters, he hardly ever moves all in with a weak hand. I lost 3/4ths of my stack to Q6.

The second loss was when I had AQs in middle position. I raised and the guy to my immediate left raised 3x my initial raise. He’s generally a loose player, playing almost any two suited cards from any position but only aggressive when he does have a hand. I should have folded the AQs, being out of position and likely dominated, but once again, I have had very few hands, and the earlier bad play I made was making me impatient to win a big pot. I called. The flop came 554, two diamonds, which gave me 2 overs and a flush draw. I decided to play this slowly to gain more information, and checked. He bet half the pot, and I decided to 3 bet him to see if he had a pair or was simply betting with AK. He went all-in, and I snap-called, a huge mistake. The pot was barely giving me 1 to 1 odds, and I was 50/50 at best against a pair under Q, and a huge underdog with any other higher pair that he would make that move with. He had Jacks, which held up to take my entire stack.

Rebuilt my stack somewhat later on when I loosened up and played more hands, but made money on good plays and reads. The last hand of the day was an extreme cooler hand where I had straddled, and the guy on my left double straddled. I caught Kings, but the guy on my left had Aces and I lost a large pot (though not as large as it could have been).

Heading home feeling very frustrated, but aware of my mistakes, I decided to continue grinding it out online. I profited 4 buy-ins in 2 hours, playing 21 tables of NL50 using BSS, and that was even though I encountered 3 huge cooler hands which involved set over sets. That’s a BB/100 of about 10 for this session alone!

Fact is, BSS doesn’t work with live games. Playing too tightly gives you no action when you have monsters, and makes you lose a lot on beats, suck-outs and bad plays. Online games differ simply because you see so many more hands online, up to several hundred times more in my case, and thus, you make a decent profit just by winning blinds alone. Live games are so slow that you barely see 25 hands per hour, and you typically need to make money in that 25 hands or you’re just wasting a lot of time. You’d be better off waiting tables to make a living. This means that you have to loosen up, play more aggressively and read more accurately. This also leads me to believe that a profitable live game player is very much more skilled than his online counterpart, since it requires looser play (high margin for error) and accurate reads.

I learnt many lessons today. Seems like everyday I play poker brings new lessons to learn, some really expensive ones. I guess the key is not to have to learn the lesson twice.

Vegas!

I’ve finally played poker in Vegas. Yeah! Sin City, gambling capital of the world, etc etc. There’s something about all that glitz and glamour that just makes it different from playing anywhere else in the world. Check out some of the scenes I managed to capture on cam.

 

 

 

 

 

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The thing about playing in Vegas though, is the sheer variety of players you meet. People from all over the world, like Israel, Greece and Belgium, just to name a few, and all with different play styles and ideas. There was this one hand I was playing against this chap from France. He was on his fourth buy-in, but managed to rebuild his stack somewhat.

I held Ac3c with a very deep stack (almost $900; yes, it was a good day!), and was sitting 2 seats behind him on the cut-off, playing $1/$2 NL on a full ring table. Thus far, I was only showing down winning hands, and the table image that I had was very strong. As is typical in a low stakes cash game, players were generally loose, and there were a lot of limpers to see the flop. This particular hand was no exception. Five players limped in before me, and I raised to $20, a very significant raise that forced all but two initial limpers to fold their hands.

 

The flop came 8h4c2h, giving me a gutshot, a backdoor flush draw and one over card. Action was checked to me and I made a bet of $35. First to act folded, and the French guy called, which meant that he hit the flop somehow. There was insufficient information to put him on any kind of hand since he has typically been a loose and passive player. The turn came a 4d, and he checked once more. I bet $50 and he flat calls once again. At this point, I put him on a hearts flush draw and resolved to fire a third bullet if the river comes a blank and he checks. The river puts a 9c on the board which was the blank I was looking for. He checks yet again and I bet $120. He started hemming and hawing, moving his chips, rechecking his cards, and that really made me rethink his hand. He finally says, “alright, I’ll pay you off”, and pushes in the $120. I flip over my Ace, and he shows… 72o.

The table went crazy. I bet none of you readers were expecting that huh? Amazing call. Thing about showing down these kind of hands though is that it pretty much gives you implied odds for your monster hand 3-barrel bets in all future hands on that table. I made all that money back 4 hands later with a nut straight, and cashed out after another 2 hours with almost 12x my initial buy-in. Happy times!

 

Three days of poker in L.A and Vegas, with a healthy profit calls for some form of celebration. What better than the Rio Seafood buffet!

 

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Hope you guys enjoyed this peek into playing at Vegas. Till next time, may your 3-barrel bluffs never get called!

Fit or Fold: Pt III - Avoid

In this final installment of the Fit or Fold series, we will discuss the various pitfalls that the average FoF player will encounter, and how to avoid being a FoF player yourself. If you've not read the previous two installments, you can find the first and second one on this blog.

The average FoF player would always run into scenarios where he has to make tough decisions, simply based on the fact that the wide range of hands he plays have the possibility of being second best, e.g. out-kicked, second best to an over-pair etc. Since FoF players are also generally very passive, they will generally not know where they are in the hand, and will call down to the river with a top pair and a bad kicker, losing huge pots to mediocre hands.

A very good example of this would be a hand I played in a live game recently. As most of you would know by now from the previous few articles that I wrote, I play very regularly in a poker room where there are a lot of loose passive fit or fold players. In this particular hand, I was holding Td4d on the cut-off. After all the usual limping from the early position players, a somewhat tight but passive player in early position raised 5xBB from middle position. Action folds to me, and I decide to isolate raise with a 3-bet to 16xBB. As expected, all the other players behind folds, and the initial raiser flat calls. The flop comes Ks7c3h, and the initial raiser checks to me. I bet 2/3rds of the pot, and he calls, telling me without doubt that he has the King, but possibly without a strong kicker. The flop was an extremely bad one for me, and I was almost drawing dead, so when the turn came a 5c, and action was checked to me, I checked behind, hoping to make my gut-shot on the river. River came the miracle 6h, and suddenly I had the best hand. The initial raiser bets slightly less than half the pot, and seeing that he had about his raise amount left in his stack, I shoved him all-in, he calls, and I show the straight to take down the pot.

What mistakes did the FoF player make here? First of all, he played a potentially mediocre hand out of position to a 3-bet. What he was basically hoping for was to hit either one of his hole cards and call down to the river. Second, after he made his hand with top-pair, he was still playing too passively, flat calling the flop instead of making a raise to find out where he stood. As he did not know my hand, it was entirely possible that he was still behind to a K with top kicker, since I 3-bet him on the flop (which illustrates the pitfalls of passive playing perfectly). Third, by checking the turn, he allowed the last free card to hit the board, which further puts him in the dark with regards to how strong his hand relatively is. Finally, he bet the river when he is utterly ignorant of where he stands, and calls a raise all-in directly after.

From this example, it is also all too clear how best to avoid being a typical FoF player. Three words, play in position. Playing in position gives you better reads on your opponents since you get to act after obtaining information from their actions. Placing myself in the position of the FoF player in the example, I would have 4-bet light to avoid playing out of position or folded pre-flop. On the flop, I would have check-raised and second-barrelled the turn to push a worse hand off the board. On the river, I would have bet, but folded to a raise if I only had top pair. Would you readers, have played this differently? Let me know in the comments section.

Picking your spots is crucial to playing poker in the long term. Of course, it is also possible to play poker as a loose player, but just to be loose isn't enough. There is only one type of profitable loose player, and that is those of the aggressive genre, typically known as LAGs. Good LAGs play loosely, but in position, and with controlled and calculated aggression. This is how they differ from the average FoF player.

This concludes the series. Till next time, good luck picking on Fit or Fold players, and avoid being one yourself!

Knowing You're Ahead, but...

How often have you had a hand where you know you're ahead, pushed all-in and your opponent calls with a draw, and gets there? So many hands of poker come down to a face-off between a pair and two over cards, or even a pair and one over card. The former is a coin toss, and the latter the pair being the 2 to 1 favorite. In both situations, the pair is always the better hand, or as they say, ahead, but when the over card(s) spike on the flop or the following streets, the pair will be down to a two outer and will almost always lose.

Poker is not gambling, almost all poker players will tell you that. But placing all your chips at risk on a coin flip is gambling, like it or not. Some poker players will tell you that as long as you put your money in when "you're ahead", you will make money in the long run. That is true, to a certain extent. The only time that isn't true is when your bankroll cannot sustain you for the "long run".

An example from a live game I played just recently; I had Ac9c on UTG position, playing $2/$5 stakes, 9 handed. The game was crazy, players calling down with almost any two cards, going all-in with hands like J9o preflop with 5 callers in the pot, most players gambling with almost any two cards. UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, player after that folds, and all mid position players called to the cutoff who raised to 6xBB. Button and the blinds fold, and action was on to me. I should have folded, being out of position with that many callers behind me, but I elected to call as the odds were decent, and the callers and raiser were loose players, the raiser having shown down extremely poor pre-flop raise hands. UTG+2 folds and the mid position player after him goes all-in for practically $600 in chips. This move forces every other player including the raiser to fold, and action was on to me. I have played many times with this particular player, and know him for a very loose, very aggressive player who doesn't mind losing his money. Limping from middle position and shoving all-in after a raise generally signifies only one thing. Weakness.

My A9s would be 50/50 against an under-pair, or two face cards, and a big favorite to any Ace with a smaller kicker. I read him for a small pair, suited Ace with a small kicker, or connected face cards like QJs, JTs. In all three situations, I would be at least 50/50 or better, so I made the call. He flips over KsQs, and we're down to a coin-flip with me having the upper hand (+13%). Flop comes 6d3cTs, and I'm almost a 3 to 1 favorite, when the turn comes a Kd and I'm drawing to a 3 outer. River was no help and I lost my stack.

How many times have you watched tournaments where players were knocked out based on 50/50 odds? In the recent WSOP $40k buy-in event, the eventual winner held Aces (no diamond) against 8c3d, and with a flop of QdTd8d was given 50/50 odds to win the bracelet. He called an all-in from the 83o (lots of donk plays by this guy, Haxton, the eventual runner-up) and his Aces held up, but it was certainly a toss-up. Even in situations where you're a 2.5 to 1 favorite, like KsKc against AsJs, should you put all your chips at risk? This was an actual scenario where I had the Kings on the big blind against a mid position limper with AsJs. We were both deep stacked, and I raised 6xBB to kick all the limpers out, but the AsJs then reraised 3x my raise. I over-bet with a shove all-in, and he reluctantly calls, spikes an Ace on the flop to take the pot. Doesn't seem fair but that's poker.

When or what makes it right to put all your money in? Here's my personal opinion, which is in one word, equity. When you have fold equity, e.g. you put the opponent's tournament life at risk with an all-in bet with a mediocre hand, that puts him in a decision for all his chips. You fold AKs pre-flop late in the tournament when there is a raise and a call in front of you with a healthy chip stack because you have better equity (cashing in the money) than 50/50. Is this gambling? Debatable. I like to think of it as calculated risks.

Let me know what you think in the comments section. Till next time, may you always put your money in when you're ahead!

APT Macau 09: Making Effective Bluffs

Bluffing is an integral part of poker, since you can't get premium hands all the time, and you can't always hit the flop even with your premium hands. I'm not going to even attempt to tell you how to bluff, seeing as its an art all by itself, and I'm still trying to master the art! I will, however, try to surmise what I can on the subject based on personal experience.

Playing in the APT Macau 2009, I made two major bluffs that helped me make my chip stack what it was at the end of the day. The very first bluff was in a four-way pot, middle of the day when the blinds and antes were starting to become significant. I was on the small blind with Tc7s, a tight player to my left on the big blind with a relatively short stack, a somewhat loose fit or fold player as UTG, and J.C Tran to my right on the button, also with a short stack. UTG smooth calls and action folds over to J.C Tran who also makes the call. The two calls plus antes, with only one more player left to act behind me, gives me great pot odds to make the call. Big blind checked, and the dealer placed Jc6s5s on the flop. I missed the flop completely with no probable draws, so I checked, and big blind then bets out a small bet of only one fourth the pot. UTG folds, and J.C Tran calls.

At this point, I read big blind for a J or a 6 with a strong kicker, and J.C Tran for possible flush or straight draw. This put me in a good position for a squeeze play. I raised a very significant amount, about 5 times the bet of the initial raise, in an attempt to squeeze out either the big blind or J.C Tran. Big blind thinks for some time, then calls, J.C Tran folds. The turn comes an 8h, which gives me a gutshot straight draw. Since the big blind was pretty short stacked, I bet half his stack, he folded, and I showed the bluff.

What made this bluff successful? There were a few factors coming together that made this work. First was the tight image, and the short stack of the big blind. With his stack, he is unlikely to make a move in the tournament, since he's got a limited amount to work with. UTG missed the flop, and was out of position with two more players to act behind him, so calling with even middle pair was not an option. J.C Tran with a short stack, very likely had a decent pair or draw, and with the fantastic pot odds offered to him by the big blind, had to make the call. In my position, making the check-raise, I also used J.C Tran's pro-image to my advantage. Big blind could not have failed to consider the fact that I checked-raised into two players, and one of them a pro player which would mean that I probably had a very strong hand, possibly limping in with small pockets and making my set. With the check-raise, and call by a tight player, J.C Tran could not make the call. The second barrel, very likely forced the big blind to consider the fact that he would very likely have to commit his whole stack by the river, which, compounded by the fact that he was short-stacked, prompted him to fold.

The second bluff was made later in the day, against the tight solid player (from the previous article, in the 77 vs 88 hand) with a relatively short stack, and another deep stacker who just moved over to our table. Tight solid player was UTG, and I was on the button with AKo, out-stacking the UTG and the new player on UTG+2. UTG raised 3xBB, and Johnny Chan to his left folds. The new player who just joined our table raised almost 3.5 times the initial raise, and action folds over to me. I have a very solid hand, but it might not be good against a raise, re-raise. I however, have an excellent position, being last to act on the button with decent odds, so I made the call. Everyone else folds to UTG who thinks for some time, then makes the call, which signaled weakness and a possible hand of small pocket pairs. The flop comes all under 9 and I completely missed again. UTG checks, UTG+2 checks and action was on me.

At this point, I read the situation as a possible slow-play by UTG, calling with pockets and hitting a set, or having smaller pockets with one or two over cards on the flop. UTG+2 almost definitely missed as he was the final aggressor pre-flop, and there would be almost no made hand that he would check after a flop like that. The pot was huge with all the action pre-flop, almost two thirds my stack, and definitely worth making an attempt at. Since I out-stacked both players, I was in no danger of busting, and if I read my opponents correctly, the most I could lose would be the stack of UTG which wouldn't cripple me. Even if I was behind, I would still very likely have outs if an Ace or King came. A small bet of even half the pot would commit me and any callers, so I decided to go all-in for maximum fold equity. UTG thinks for a long time, then folds, and UTG+2 also does the same after much consideration, flipping over AKs!

In this scenario, both the short stack of UTG and the deep stack of UTG+2 worked to my advantage. UTG had to consider putting in all his chips on a possible small pair hand, and with a re-raiser behind him left to act, could not make the call. UTG+2 had AKs, but could not make the call as any pair would leave him with only 6 outs, costing him the tournament if he missed. As even a call of the raise, re-raise preflop indicated a lot of strength, both players must have read me for a decent pair, possibly TT or JJ.

So, in summary, both scenarios had similar conditions. Both involved squeeze plays on short stack players. Both placed the players involved in a decision for all their stack, and both involved showing a lot of strength either pre-flop or on the flop and a strong follow-up bet. In the first scenario, strength was shown with an out of position check-raise and bet on the next street. The second scenario illustrates how you can show strength, even without a raise pre-flop as even a flat call of a raise, large re-raise, generally indicates a huge hand. There were also no showdowns in both scenarios, which meant that even if I was holding 72o, the results would have been the same.

Hope this article helps in the much debated topic of bluffing in Texas Hold'em. As always, comments and feedback are appreciated!

APT Macau 09: Fine Line Between Good Reads and Bad Play

Haven't written much at all last month, and that was because I attended the APT Macau 2009, made day one chip lead, and lost it all in a span of two hours out of the money. Enough to drive anyone to quit poker, well, at least for a while. Not to say that it wasn't a fantastic experience. Grinding out the cash games, meeting great players and interesting people, and of course, playing to qualify for the main event in 3 satellites, making the final table in all three and only qualifying through the very last chance satellites... definitely an experience to remember.

In any case, I've recovered sufficiently to share several hands I played personally in the tournament that I felt was an interesting observation in demonstrating the fine line between good reads and bad play. The very first would be a hand played in the bounty side event against Liz Lieu, who like various Poker Pack members had a bounty of HKD 2.5k on her head. I was UTG with JJ, and raised to 3.5xBB, action folding all the way to Liz in late position who re-raised to 2.5x my raise. I joined the tournament relatively late, so Liz had already accumulated enough chips to out stack me. At that point, a re-raise would not be sufficient for me to release a premium hand like JJ, so I did a light 3-bet of 2.5x her raise, committing about one third of my stack in the process. To my surprise, Liz made a min raise which would force me to commit half my stack if I were to call. I put her on a big pair, but called anyway in the hopes of hitting a set on the flop due to good pot odds. Flop came rainbow, all under 9, I checked, she fired once more and I folded, revealing my Jacks in the process. She asked me in a very surprised manner how I could fold that kind of hand on a flop like that.

I had the opportunity to ask her when she eventually fell to aces later in the tournament about the hand, and she told me in a laughing voice that I should have called. I guess my Jacks were good there, but she played her position and stack advantage in a manner that gave me the decision of placing all my chips on Jacks, or waiting for a better opportunity. I had the honor of making the acquaintance of J.C Tran later in the main event (eventual winner of the bounty event), playing directly on his left, and I asked his opinion on the hand. He told me that he was of the opinion that she had me beat, and folding was not a bad play. What do you readers think?

After qualifying for Day 1B through the last chance satellite, I was placed directly on the left of J.C Tran, and got AdJd for my fourth hand in UTG+1. J.C Tran, who was relatively short stack raised UTG to 2.5xBB, and I decided to be aggressive and re-raised to 3x his raise. The raise succeeded in isolating him, and action folded back to J.C who smooth called. Flop came QXX, and I miss completely, not even having a back door flush draw. He checks, and I fire a continuation bet of roughly 1/3 of the pot which he calls. Turn comes another blank, and I continue my aggression, firing yet another 1/3 of the pot which he calls again. At this point, I had no doubt that he had the Q, and I might be drawing dead to a hand like AQ. River comes an Ace, and he checks yet again. There was no real possibility of a straight or flush on the board, but reading him for AQ, I checked behind. He flipped over KQo, and was frustrated to see that I caught the Ace on the river. He told me later that he was short-stacked, so was content to check-call all the way to the river, and very likely would have called a value bet on the river. A bad read on my part not to value bet? Note that I only bet when I was way behind, and checked when I was actually in front.

This other hand happened on the very same table, about 30 minutes after Johnny Chan joined the table (I know! Playing with the legend, how awesome is that!). I got 88 in early position and raised to 2.5xBB, hoping to steal the blinds which were getting pretty significant at that point. A solid tight player in middle position 3-bet light, and everyone else folds to me and I call. Flop comes J56 rainbow, I checked and he went all-in and this surprised me. I observed his play earlier and noticed that he never risked all his stack, even with a hand like AK top pair top kicker. I out-stacked him, but would be severely crippled by 2/3rds of my stack if I called and he had 99 or better. It was the hand just before the dinner break and J.C Tran said in with a laugh that I should take my time to think so they could go off for dinner. Another guy came by while I was agonizing over my decision, asking Johnny Chan to go with them for dinner, but he said he wanted to see the hand first (cool huh!). I finally decided to call due to the abnormality of his play and he shows 77, my eights held up to double me up. Coming back from dinner, I was lauded for a great call by the table (including the two great players, need I mention their names again :) ), but I was thinking how close it was, and the risk I placed my entire tournament on. Good call? You decide.

Final hand, one that significantly contributed to my crashing out without the money on the second day. I got KhTh in middle position and raised to 2.5xBB with a slightly diminished stack from Day 1, and David Steike (Aussie Millions event 8 winner) who out-stacked me called from SB, everyone else folds. Flop comes Qh7h5h, giving me the K high flush. David checks, I bet a heavier than usual bet of half the pot, and he calls. Turn shows a 6c and David checks again. I bet half the pot again, and to my surprise, David raises me 3.5x my raise, a very significant raise that would commit a total of 30k of my 80k chip stack if I were to call. I was still confident with my hand, as I would only lose to an Ace-high flush. He played the hand like how he would play a set of fives or sevens, and I resolved to put all my chips in on the river unless another hearts came or the board paired, so I called. The river comes a 6s and David fires 20k into the pot out of position, and suddenly I was in a dilemma. If he had the set, he just made a boat. I had the option of trusting in my reads and folding my K-high flush, cutting my losses, or calling and leaving me with 30k (one third of what I started the day with) if my reads were right. I thought for a long time, and decided to choose the former, but it was a tough fold. I never found out what he had, so I leave it to you readers for your opinions on the play. Good fold? Let me know in the comments section.

Hope this shows the intensity of some of the decisions made through out the tournament, and the fine line between good reads and bad play. When does calling down with middle / bottom pair become a good read, and when does it become bad play? When does laying down a flopped K high flush become a good read or bad play?

I'll write more about my APT experiences in future articles, so till then, stay tuned!