APT Macau 09: Fine Line Between Good Reads and Bad Play

Haven't written much at all last month, and that was because I attended the APT Macau 2009, made day one chip lead, and lost it all in a span of two hours out of the money. Enough to drive anyone to quit poker, well, at least for a while. Not to say that it wasn't a fantastic experience. Grinding out the cash games, meeting great players and interesting people, and of course, playing to qualify for the main event in 3 satellites, making the final table in all three and only qualifying through the very last chance satellites... definitely an experience to remember.

In any case, I've recovered sufficiently to share several hands I played personally in the tournament that I felt was an interesting observation in demonstrating the fine line between good reads and bad play. The very first would be a hand played in the bounty side event against Liz Lieu, who like various Poker Pack members had a bounty of HKD 2.5k on her head. I was UTG with JJ, and raised to 3.5xBB, action folding all the way to Liz in late position who re-raised to 2.5x my raise. I joined the tournament relatively late, so Liz had already accumulated enough chips to out stack me. At that point, a re-raise would not be sufficient for me to release a premium hand like JJ, so I did a light 3-bet of 2.5x her raise, committing about one third of my stack in the process. To my surprise, Liz made a min raise which would force me to commit half my stack if I were to call. I put her on a big pair, but called anyway in the hopes of hitting a set on the flop due to good pot odds. Flop came rainbow, all under 9, I checked, she fired once more and I folded, revealing my Jacks in the process. She asked me in a very surprised manner how I could fold that kind of hand on a flop like that.

I had the opportunity to ask her when she eventually fell to aces later in the tournament about the hand, and she told me in a laughing voice that I should have called. I guess my Jacks were good there, but she played her position and stack advantage in a manner that gave me the decision of placing all my chips on Jacks, or waiting for a better opportunity. I had the honor of making the acquaintance of J.C Tran later in the main event (eventual winner of the bounty event), playing directly on his left, and I asked his opinion on the hand. He told me that he was of the opinion that she had me beat, and folding was not a bad play. What do you readers think?

After qualifying for Day 1B through the last chance satellite, I was placed directly on the left of J.C Tran, and got AdJd for my fourth hand in UTG+1. J.C Tran, who was relatively short stack raised UTG to 2.5xBB, and I decided to be aggressive and re-raised to 3x his raise. The raise succeeded in isolating him, and action folded back to J.C who smooth called. Flop came QXX, and I miss completely, not even having a back door flush draw. He checks, and I fire a continuation bet of roughly 1/3 of the pot which he calls. Turn comes another blank, and I continue my aggression, firing yet another 1/3 of the pot which he calls again. At this point, I had no doubt that he had the Q, and I might be drawing dead to a hand like AQ. River comes an Ace, and he checks yet again. There was no real possibility of a straight or flush on the board, but reading him for AQ, I checked behind. He flipped over KQo, and was frustrated to see that I caught the Ace on the river. He told me later that he was short-stacked, so was content to check-call all the way to the river, and very likely would have called a value bet on the river. A bad read on my part not to value bet? Note that I only bet when I was way behind, and checked when I was actually in front.

This other hand happened on the very same table, about 30 minutes after Johnny Chan joined the table (I know! Playing with the legend, how awesome is that!). I got 88 in early position and raised to 2.5xBB, hoping to steal the blinds which were getting pretty significant at that point. A solid tight player in middle position 3-bet light, and everyone else folds to me and I call. Flop comes J56 rainbow, I checked and he went all-in and this surprised me. I observed his play earlier and noticed that he never risked all his stack, even with a hand like AK top pair top kicker. I out-stacked him, but would be severely crippled by 2/3rds of my stack if I called and he had 99 or better. It was the hand just before the dinner break and J.C Tran said in with a laugh that I should take my time to think so they could go off for dinner. Another guy came by while I was agonizing over my decision, asking Johnny Chan to go with them for dinner, but he said he wanted to see the hand first (cool huh!). I finally decided to call due to the abnormality of his play and he shows 77, my eights held up to double me up. Coming back from dinner, I was lauded for a great call by the table (including the two great players, need I mention their names again :) ), but I was thinking how close it was, and the risk I placed my entire tournament on. Good call? You decide.

Final hand, one that significantly contributed to my crashing out without the money on the second day. I got KhTh in middle position and raised to 2.5xBB with a slightly diminished stack from Day 1, and David Steike (Aussie Millions event 8 winner) who out-stacked me called from SB, everyone else folds. Flop comes Qh7h5h, giving me the K high flush. David checks, I bet a heavier than usual bet of half the pot, and he calls. Turn shows a 6c and David checks again. I bet half the pot again, and to my surprise, David raises me 3.5x my raise, a very significant raise that would commit a total of 30k of my 80k chip stack if I were to call. I was still confident with my hand, as I would only lose to an Ace-high flush. He played the hand like how he would play a set of fives or sevens, and I resolved to put all my chips in on the river unless another hearts came or the board paired, so I called. The river comes a 6s and David fires 20k into the pot out of position, and suddenly I was in a dilemma. If he had the set, he just made a boat. I had the option of trusting in my reads and folding my K-high flush, cutting my losses, or calling and leaving me with 30k (one third of what I started the day with) if my reads were right. I thought for a long time, and decided to choose the former, but it was a tough fold. I never found out what he had, so I leave it to you readers for your opinions on the play. Good fold? Let me know in the comments section.

Hope this shows the intensity of some of the decisions made through out the tournament, and the fine line between good reads and bad play. When does calling down with middle / bottom pair become a good read, and when does it become bad play? When does laying down a flopped K high flush become a good read or bad play?

I'll write more about my APT experiences in future articles, so till then, stay tuned!