How often have you had a hand where you know you're ahead, pushed all-in and your opponent calls with a draw, and gets there? So many hands of poker come down to a face-off between a pair and two over cards, or even a pair and one over card. The former is a coin toss, and the latter the pair being the 2 to 1 favorite. In both situations, the pair is always the better hand, or as they say, ahead, but when the over card(s) spike on the flop or the following streets, the pair will be down to a two outer and will almost always lose.
Poker is not gambling, almost all poker players will tell you that. But placing all your chips at risk on a coin flip is gambling, like it or not. Some poker players will tell you that as long as you put your money in when "you're ahead", you will make money in the long run. That is true, to a certain extent. The only time that isn't true is when your bankroll cannot sustain you for the "long run".
An example from a live game I played just recently; I had Ac9c on UTG position, playing $2/$5 stakes, 9 handed. The game was crazy, players calling down with almost any two cards, going all-in with hands like J9o preflop with 5 callers in the pot, most players gambling with almost any two cards. UTG+1 calls, UTG+2 calls, player after that folds, and all mid position players called to the cutoff who raised to 6xBB. Button and the blinds fold, and action was on to me. I should have folded, being out of position with that many callers behind me, but I elected to call as the odds were decent, and the callers and raiser were loose players, the raiser having shown down extremely poor pre-flop raise hands. UTG+2 folds and the mid position player after him goes all-in for practically $600 in chips. This move forces every other player including the raiser to fold, and action was on to me. I have played many times with this particular player, and know him for a very loose, very aggressive player who doesn't mind losing his money. Limping from middle position and shoving all-in after a raise generally signifies only one thing. Weakness.
My A9s would be 50/50 against an under-pair, or two face cards, and a big favorite to any Ace with a smaller kicker. I read him for a small pair, suited Ace with a small kicker, or connected face cards like QJs, JTs. In all three situations, I would be at least 50/50 or better, so I made the call. He flips over KsQs, and we're down to a coin-flip with me having the upper hand (+13%). Flop comes 6d3cTs, and I'm almost a 3 to 1 favorite, when the turn comes a Kd and I'm drawing to a 3 outer. River was no help and I lost my stack.
How many times have you watched tournaments where players were knocked out based on 50/50 odds? In the recent WSOP $40k buy-in event, the eventual winner held Aces (no diamond) against 8c3d, and with a flop of QdTd8d was given 50/50 odds to win the bracelet. He called an all-in from the 83o (lots of donk plays by this guy, Haxton, the eventual runner-up) and his Aces held up, but it was certainly a toss-up. Even in situations where you're a 2.5 to 1 favorite, like KsKc against AsJs, should you put all your chips at risk? This was an actual scenario where I had the Kings on the big blind against a mid position limper with AsJs. We were both deep stacked, and I raised 6xBB to kick all the limpers out, but the AsJs then reraised 3x my raise. I over-bet with a shove all-in, and he reluctantly calls, spikes an Ace on the flop to take the pot. Doesn't seem fair but that's poker.
When or what makes it right to put all your money in? Here's my personal opinion, which is in one word, equity. When you have fold equity, e.g. you put the opponent's tournament life at risk with an all-in bet with a mediocre hand, that puts him in a decision for all his chips. You fold AKs pre-flop late in the tournament when there is a raise and a call in front of you with a healthy chip stack because you have better equity (cashing in the money) than 50/50. Is this gambling? Debatable. I like to think of it as calculated risks.
Let me know what you think in the comments section. Till next time, may you always put your money in when you're ahead!
September 19, 2009 at 9:05 AM
Often we hear
"If poker is a game of chance/luck, why do we have so many familiar faces on the fnial table?"
BUT we have more new faces and familiar faces, even the eventual winners.
I could imagine how many coin flip like you mentioned about that 'familiar faces' have to overcome to make it.
September 25, 2009 at 7:35 AM
That's why they say tournament poker is about avoiding coin-flip situations, or rather, giving yourself buffers if a coin-flip situation should occur!
Post a Comment