Minimizing Losses Pt:I

Have you ever been in a hand where you think you flopped the best, only to discover you were way behind and drawing practically dead to the actual nuts on the flop? I have; countless (and I mean that literally) times. In those situations, are you destined to lose a lot of money? I believe otherwise. Poker is a game of maximizing your wins when you're ahead, and minimizing your losses when you're behind.

This is a hand I played a couple of days ago, with Ah9h on UTG in a 6-max $0.25/$0.50 game. I raised 3xBB, and action folds to cut-off (CO) who calls, and the rest folds, 2 players to the flop. The flop comes Ac9d2c, giving me aces up. I decide to slowplay as I had been raising quite a bit in the previous hands, which makes this a good time to seem defensive. CO raises to $3, and I happily called. The turn comes 3h which is largely irrelevant, so I decide that my hand is relatively safe. I check, CO raises to $6.50, and I re-raised to $13, having about $14 left in my stack. He puts me all in, and I call only to see I was facing a set of deuces. The river was no help.

As you can see, I was way behind on the flop from the word go. With only 4 possible outs, I had only 8% to win the hand by the river. Yet, I thought I was ahead, and even tried to slow-play my hand. Could I have avoided losing my whole stack to this hand? Maybe. The set of deuces was extremely well disguised, and aces up is a tough hand to fold. I was blinded by the apparent strength of my hand, and disregarded the fact that my opponent could have caught a better flop than me. We can probably coin a new term here - Poker Blindness: A condition where you think you have the best hand without consideration to the strength of your opponents.

With hindsight, and without being poker blind, this would have been the best way to play the hand. The raise on UTG was correct, effectively pushing out most limpers, and drawing in one player to go heads up. CO flat calls a UTG raise, which shows some strength as he could be slow-playing big pockets (unlikely) or holding high suited connectors (JT), and small pocket pairs. Small pocket pairs are generally the best hands to limp in with as you could probably flop a very well disguised monster, while being able to fold if you miss. This is called set-mining. In very rare occasions would a set miner re-raise with small pockets due to the danger of being 3 bet and thus forced to fold.

The check on the flop was also correct as I could have the best hand, but when CO bet, I should have re-raised. If CO then goes over the top, it would be very apparent that he could only be playing with a set, AK and flush draw being very unlikely as he would have raised preflop with the former, and flat called with the latter. If CO decides to be tricky and calls the raise, I could then check the turn, and fold if he bets out strongly as a flush draw would very likely check the turn as well. Strange as it sounds, check-raising postflop would have saved me the most money.

The following hand illustrates an actual played-out situation very relevant to the current topic. I had pocket 8s on SB, in a 6-max 0.25/0.50 game. UTG had just sat down and paid blinds, so the inital pot without any bets was $1.25. UTG checks, UTG+1 folds, CO calls, button folds, I call and BB checks; 4 players to the flop which comes Kd5c8c, giving me middle set. Action is checked to CO who bets $1. I call to represent a flush draw, and the rest folds. 4c comes on the turn, and I check again to CO who bets $3. I flat called again, making the pot $10. River comes 3d, and I check once more to CO who goes all in for my whole stack of $21.25.

What would you readers do if you were in my position, and why? What do you think the CO had, and would you have played the hand any differently? Leave your answers in the comments section, or email me at entropically.driven@gmail.com. I will provide the actual hand and outcome in Part II of this article.

To Be Lucky or to Be Skillful?

A few days back, a friend asked me a rather interesting question: If you had 100%, how would you distribute this on 2 stats, being lucky or being skillful. This brought out a small debate amongst us as he thought being skillful would give you the edge over the lucky person in most situations.

So, this prompted me to ask you readers, which would you rather be if you were playing a game of poker? Be Lucky or Be Skillful? Or maybe to some of you neutrals, be half lucky and half skillful?

The strange thing about a game of poker is no matter how good you are, or how skillful you may be, there will be days where you hit a bad run, or you just get constantly bad beat. And regardless the number of times you spin those scenarios in your head, hoping to see which plays you perhaps did wrongly, you find yourself confirming that you did everything right. You had the best hole cards. You hit the best possible flop you would ever dreamed of. You played the best way possible, every single step of the way. And yet you end up losing. How is that possible?

Interestingly enough, that very special friend of mine pointed out a game scenario to show me how a skillful person would easily beat the lucky person in a game of poker. Say for example we have Sean, a very skillful poker player, holding his AK non suited against Landon, our lucky person who was holding pocket J. Sean would start out manipulating the situation by raising preflop. Landon, being lucky and excited would just plainly call. You would not expect a re-raise from Landon here as he knows very little about the game. The flop comes out TJQ rainbow. This puts Sean in a great position here as he immediately hit his straight on the flop. Realising that he probably has the best hand here, Sean attempts to entice more money from Landon by putting in value bets. On the turn, a J is revealed letting Landon hit the quads. Now, this is where the debate is in full swing. My friend argued that Landon would fold if Sean put in a strong bet on the turn. His argument was solely based that a significant bet from Sean would indicate Sean has a strong hand and Landon, the lucky and non-skillful player of the game would fold on the reason that he thinks his pocket J is not good enough to beat Sean's hole cards. How many of you would agree this is true?

Now instead, try looking at it this way. Landon being only lucky and having no skill on how to play the game would figure he has 50% chance in any hand and he should just call all the way. He doesn't understand why one would raise so he would just merely call. The flop TJQ has no meaning what so ever to Landon. He has no thought that his opponent may hit the nuts. He has no idea what his opponent really has. To Landon, Sean's hole cards could be anything from QQ to AA or even 23.

So, how should Sean play from pre-flop, to the flop, and all the way to the river to win this hand. The answer would be regardless how Sean manipulates each betting round, he would still lose.

In a game of poker I played just recently, UTG and UTG+1 limps in pre-flop. There were 2 folds in between me and UTG+1. With pocket Aces and on the button, I raised 6xBB pre-flop. SB and BB folded. UTG folded. UTG+1 called. The flop opened out 6T2. UTG+1 checks and I raise, he shoves all in and I call. My opponent showed me a 62 off suite. The final turn and river cards were irrelevant. So, in this example, my raise of 6BB pre-flop didnt mean anything to him while holding 62 off suite. On the flop, he got lucky and hit 2 pairs while I played as if I had him. Bummer!

I only wish I was the guy with the 100% luck.

Authors, Affiliations and Content

For those who've been following this blog since its conception, I'm sure that you have noticed various upgrades being done to the blog from its bare-bones origins. I have received various positive comments on the site, which encourages me to further expand it and increase the variety in content.

I'm working on getting several new authors to come on board in the not-so-distant future, who will be contributing their insights on poker based on their own unique experiences. Most are like me, amateurs trying to improve their game to a more professional level, while some are already on that level. It will be very interesting to see what they contribute, so stay tuned and check back often. To keep updated on all new posts and comments on the site, you can subscribe to the site feed via the buttons located on the sidebar to the right.

This blog is also now affiliated with PokerStrategy.com, PokerStars.com and Rakeback.com, which provide some of the best in their genre. If you like the sites content, and want to help contribute in some way, simply help by clicking on the links on the blog to these affiliates and sign up if you haven't already. That's all it takes, and whatever revenue it generates will help keep this blog up and running.


Your feedback is very important, helping a lot with the improvement of quality of the site's content. This is why you will notice that Digg tags have been added to all articles. Simply "Digg" the articles if you like them. There are also simple reaction checkboxes located at the bottom of each article which will help identify the content which most of you readers are interested in. Use these reaction boxes if you have read the article but don't have time to leave a comment.
Finally, your comments are valued. Please leave comments on the articles whenever possible, even if they are negative comments. It will help us increase the quality of the site's content and better tailor it to suit the inclinations of you, as site readers.

Thanks for your support!

#2 Poker Basics: Outs and Percentages

In the previous installment, we were discussing pot odds and how to bet on the odds profitably. Betting profitably relies heavily on knowing the outs you have, which is what we will be talking about in this topic.

When someone talks about outs in Texas Hold'em poker, they are refering to the number of possible cards that could help them make the best hand, from the cards that are still left concealed. Let's say you have AhJh, and the flop comes 2h7hKc, you would have a total of 15 possible outs against someone with a single pair lower than K, say QQ and below, 12 possible outs against someone holding a K (9 hearts plus any Ace), and 9 outs against anyone holding aces, 2 pair or better.

Now let's say instead of AhJh, you hold QhJh. Your number of outs would have decreased dramatically as you could possibly be drawing dead (having no outs) to someone holding a nut flush draw, or having only as little as 9 outs against a simple K2 hand. In times like this, you would be better off folding your draw as you might end up losing more money. This then brings reading your opponent and estimating the range of hands he/she would play and the likelyhood of them holding those possible hands based on physical tells, betting patterns etc.

Another very important thing is to remember not to count your outs twice, or you could be giving yourself a very inaccurate estimate. Say you hold AhKc instead, and the flop is Ks7h2h, the turn is 6h, and your opponent holds Aces. This would give you a total number of 11 outs, 9 flush outs plus 2 kings. The last K (King of hearts) isn't counted because that card has already been counted in your flush outs.

Knowing the number of outs you have will determine your percentage of winning. Converting the number of outs you have into percentages is a simple process. A rough percentage estimate would be multiplying your outs by 2 for each street you will be able to see. Note that for outs that are more than 11, you should subtract 2-4% from the final estimate for a more accurate representation. So, if we take the first sample hand above and assume that we will see both the turn and river cards, we would have an estimate of 56% to beat a pair lower than K, 45% to beat a K pair, and 36% to beat Aces, 2 pair or better. Simple math.

If you only get to see one street, e.g. the turn, possibly due to aggressive betting, or you only make the draw on the turn, you only multiply your outs by 2, resulting in only half of the percentages listed above. In any case, knowing your percentages would give you a simple estimate on how much to bet or call for your bet to be profitable in the long run. Of course, this is not the be-all-end-all of betting. Texas Hold'em poker involves various other betting methods like bluffs and semi bluffs, but a basic knowledge of calculating your outs, translating that into your odds of winning, then making the right bet is crucial when you're playing poker. Having this skill is what separates the actual players from the gamblers.

Till the next time, may you never gamble with your bets!

Flopping the Nuts

People always say its easy to be the champ when you flop the nuts. Easy enough to play, you bet and you win. Nothing to it really.

Not exactly.

Sure, its fun flopping the nuts and knowing you can't be beat. The real skill involved here though is extracting the maximum out of your opponents, and not wasting the luck that just got thrown your way. A lot of players, when they see that they flop the full house, immediately put themselves in the mindset that they have the best hand. So when their opponents check, they check, in the hopes that someone would bet. When their opponents actually bet into them, they think, "I want maximum value, but I can't bet too much or they would fold", so they do a min-raise. Fact is, they play as though everyone knows their hand, when they could have done the same thing with any two cards and still have taken down the pot.

Having aces preflop would equate to having the nuts before seeing the flop. It is the best possible hand to have, and any other hand is at least a 4 to 1 underdog. Let's say you get aces UTG, and you bet 4xBB, everyone folds. Does it matter then if you had aces? Nope. Technically, you could have been holding seven deuce and still have achieved the very same effect with your bet.

Let's look at an actual example of flopping the nuts. I was holding JcJs preflop on small blind, $0.5/$1 full ring table. Everyone folds to me, I bet 3xBB, big blind re-raises to $10, I call. Flop comes Jh7hJd, quads for me. I check, he bets $10, I call. Turn shows 9h, I check, he checks. River comes As, I shove all-in, for his remaining $28.50, he calls with AcKh.

Replaying the hand from the big blind's perspective, this was probably the logical process that was going on behind the scenes. I was on small blind with one player left to act behind me, excellent position to steal the blinds. Big blind knows this, so he thinks that he very likely has the best hand with AcKh. I raise to 3xBB, a typical steal, and he re-raises slightly more than 3x my raise, to obtain information on the strength of my hand. If I had Aces or Kings, I would probably re-raise him, or at the very least call. Some looser players may even have called with AQs or AJs. I call, which says that my hand has some strength.

The flop shows a paired up board, which decreases the chance that it hit me. I checked, and the big blind does a standard continuation bet of $10, half the pot. This bet is designed to take the pot down then and there if I was playing something like AQs or even AKs, or to test if I had a J where I would likely reraise. Very few people would continue slowplaying J after a bet behind on a possible flush drawing board. I flat called his bet, which puts me on possible suited connector hands drawing to a flush, lower pairs like Tens, or possible over pairs trying to keep the pot small. The 9h puts the flush on the board, and gives the big blind a K high flush draw, 15 outs against QQ, TT, 9 outs against any flush lower than Ace high. I check, and the big blind checks. The river comes the A and I shove. This could have been a bet by AQ or AK whiffing on the flop and making a loose call, only to hit the river, or it could be a total bluff trying to represent the A or flush. It is very likely that I did not have the flush as I checked the turn, possibly being afraid of the flush. AK has very good showdown equity with an Ace on the board, so big blind calls in the hopes that I had something like QQ or even KK.

The brilliant play (excuse my modesty) lies in the shove on the river. If I were to have checked the river as well, the big blind would definitely have checked, and shown down with the Ace pair K kicker. A small bet would show that I was very strong (possibly with a flush), and was trying to extract the maximum value, so the big blind could also very likely have thrown his hand away. Because the big blind knows that I know that the Ace is a natural scare card, the chances of me bluffing is higher than normal, and since he does have the Ace, the chances of me having the ace is much slimmer. Most players with the absolute nuts would likely have checked again to the aggressor in the hopes that he would bet out and make a check-raise possible. With all that in mind, the shove was by far, the best play to extract the most money.

Of course, there would also be times when you play against weak / unthinking opponents who are just there to gamble. In that case, given the same scenario, these kind of players would also probably have lost all their stack with a change to the turn play. The flop would have gone check check, and bet call on the turn, shove call on the river.

Hope this gives an insight on the thought processes behind both playing with, and against the nuts.

#1 Poker Basics: Pot Odds and Profitable Betting

I'm gonna start a series on basic poker concepts for the readers that have just started, and are interested in the theory behind the game. This will be the first installment of many to come, which will, hopefully, help clarify the elementary concepts of poker.

So, what are pot odds? The "pot", in poker, is the term used to describe the total amount of money invested by all players involved in a hand at any given time. So, in that respect, "pot odds" refer to the ratio of a bet against the pot. E.g. All players on a $1/$2 table fold to the small blind, who is getting 3 to 1 odds ($1 more to bet for a chance to win $3) to call. If the small blind raises to 3xBB instead of calling, he is giving the big blind 2 to 1 odds to call ($4 for a $8 pot). Simple enough to understand.

How does this translate into profitable betting? If you get odds of 2 to 1, you only have to win it once in 3 times to break even. Anything more than that would be an automatic profit. In a very simple scenario, Player A and Player B are betting on a coin flip (50% to turn up heads or tails). Player A gives B $2 every time heads turn up, while B gives $1 to A every time it comes tails. If they run it 100 times, Player A would win 50 times, and B would win 50 times. This means that at the end, Player A would pay B 50x$2, while B would pay A 50x$1, netting B a profit of $50. A simple summary of this would be that every time you receive 2 to 1 odds with a 50% chance to win, you bet.

Rule of thumb is that every time you get more than, or equal odds to your win percentage (e.g. 3 to 1 odds, 33% chance to win) it is profitable, and therefore the correct choice to bet. Calculating your chances of winning will be in the next installment.

Till then, may your bets always be profitable!

#1 Grinding It Up

My account hasn't been reinstated yet, apparently due to linked accounts needing verification. I guess it'll be a few days more before I get it back to normal. Thank God for family though. A close relative of mine was kind enough to loan me $200 just yesterday.

Moving back to $0.25/$0.50 stakes, playing Short Stack Strategy (with a bit of position stealing thrown in) on nine consecutive tables, I managed to make $86 in a couple of hours. Pretty good run, with very few errors. Stopped a while for dinner and returned happy after a good meal for more blind-stealing goodness, or so I thought. Started off moving into deficit (from the earlier profit) when several premium hands like AK missed the flop. Then came this particular hand, played on a $0.25/$0.50 table.

I was in mid position with KcKd, UTG with a VP of 45 and PR of 7 (very loose and passive) player calls, next player folds to me who raises to 5xBB. Everyone folds to UTG who calls. Flop comes Js10d4s, a pretty wet flop with multiple possible draws. UTG checks and I bet $3, slightly more than half the pot, which he calls. The call puts me on my guard as he could have likely hit J10 or could possibly be on a draw. A 4c comes on the turn, and he bets out with $4.50. At this point, since he could be playing almost any two cards, the 4 might have helped make his trips so I opt for the cautious route (pot control) and flat called. The final river card was 8s, which completes almost any straight or flush draw. He shoves all-in for my full stack of $24.05. I thought for a very long time, wondering if I could fold my KK, but called in the end, and he shows me Ks3s.

With hindsight, it was a very easy fold. I only had a pair of kings to several possible made hands like trips, straight or flush. A passive player like him would rarely shove all in on a move, which made it all the more likely that he either made his hand on the turn or river, both of which would have me crushed. I made several bad plays, first of which was not betting the pot on the flop, and the next, not re raising on the turn to find out if he did indeed have a 4.

That hand caused me to tilt a little, and I quickly lost most of my earlier profit. Some due to missed flops, some due to marginal calls. 2 hours of hard work back down the drain. I took a deep breath and told myself to calm down. Then started fresh with 3 tables, of $0.25/$0.50 6-max, short stacked. Started playing well again, stealing when I should, folding when I should, showing down when I should. Multiplied one table's buy-in by 9, another by 2, and the last by 1. Which gave me back my original profit. Grinded for yet another 2 hours today and made $103, allowing me to return the $200.

Start: -$646.78

Time Spent: 6 hrs

End: -$460.51

It's gonna be a long climb.

Tilt

What is tilt? How exactly does it affect one's play?

This is probably one of the biggest fears of a poker player. Tilt generally happens after a bad beat. E.g. you flop nut flush in late position and aggressively 3 bet, only to face a huge all-in for most of your stack from an early position 2 pair. You call, only to be beaten on the turn by the two pair hitting a four outer and making a boat. Tilting players would then start betting aggressively out of position with any semi-decent hand (or maybe no hand at all) and lose much more than they would have had they been playing rationally.

In my opinion, thinking back about the times when I was tilting (and I do that a lot), most of the times, it had to do with me thinking about how much I lost, and how much time I would have to recover it before the session ends. This usually leads to raising and building large pots, in the hopes of taking down a big one and recovering from the beat. Never works. Of course, there are times when you get lucky and make back all your money, but times like that only encourage you to play irrationally, and you soon lose all your discipline and patience.

Thing about poker is that you have to, emphasis on have, or in other words, must play with a clear head, making mathematically sound decisions so that you profit in the long run. Playing to recover from a loss only causes impatience, irregular play and ultimately, huge losses. Why is this so detrimental? Simply because when playing a game of variance, you naturally incur losses in the short term, even though you play mathematically perfect. Statistics and math in poker is designed to give you an edge in the long term, where luck isn't as much of a factor. Compounding those losses with additional leaks through tilt affects your bankroll exponentially, which severely stunts your income, and in the worst of cases, puts you in the red.

So, how best to avoid tilt? Simply avoid thinking about past losses and recovery. Instead, focus on the game at hand. Think of probabilities, not possibilities. Easier said than done though.

Stuff You Wish You Knew

My account has been "fully reinstated", or so they say, but the deposit options are suddenly reduced to two, both of which I never use. This is starting to piss me off, though of course, this extended break could be exactly what I need. In any case, I certainly hope all options for my account is fully reinstated, like literally, by today.

In the meantime, throughout my one month of online play, I have often discovered stuff which would have been beneficial, had I known it before I started, but is now of less use than it would have been. I'll just record it here so anyone who's keen on starting online could at least have the head start I didn't.

First off, marketing codes. When you first create your online account, you are generally requested to key in marketing codes that the site's affiliates provide. These codes generally give benefits from $50 bonus to free subscriptions to their sites contents or software. $50 might not seem like much, but when you're grinding it out on the lower stakes, any leg up to building your bankroll is invaluable. One of the better sites that I've discovered is PokerStrategy.com. Not only do they give you a free startup bankroll of $50+$100, they also teach you how best to play so that you don't end up in the red. Something to note though, if you already have an existing account, do not attempt to create a second one to take advantage of this. It is extremely likely that both the accounts get locked. I learnt this the hard way.

Another thing you should definitely know about is rakeback. All online poker rooms rake a percentage off the pot for profit. Rakeback programs give you up to a possible 40% in rake money back, so the higher your stakes, the more money you save. Some online rooms like PokerStars do not support rakeback, but they compensate with a frequent player programme of their own which gives comparable benefits. Rakeback.com is a good example of a rakeback programme that offers good returns. Check it out, and mark me (Entropy) as your referrer if you do sign up.

Tracking software is also a huge part of online poker. These software costs quite a bit, but when you move your way up the stakes, your income should generally be able to pay for the software. Tracking software help you profile opponents you have played in the past so when you play them again, you have a rough idea of how tight / loose, aggressive / passive they play, and adjust your play accordingly. This is especially useful when you multi-table and don't have time to focus on analyzing your opponents. Most software include other features like profit charts, hand stats, and even hand replay options so you can review your play. Profit charts like the one I posted a couple of days earlier shows you information on your play trends, which you can use to deduce your game play weaknesses and strengths. Extremely essential.

Finally, before you completely lose your initial bankroll, do not, I repeat, do not play higher stakes till you're ready for it. Bankroll management is crucial if you intend to play poker professionally, and until you have enough in your bankroll to support higher stakes, leave well alone. I will be writing more about this in later articles, but its enough to mention for now that poker is a game of variance, and like it or not, no matter how good you play, you will run into bad streaks and beats. There are many sites online, including PokerStrategy.com which help you better your game online. Research and read up on the game, before even attempting to start, or believe me, you will go broke faster than you can say "all in".

Damn, I really need my account back!

It Only Takes One

One bad play. That's it.

This is so embarrassing I can hardly bring myself to write this.

In the very same tournament from the previous post, blinds are 400/800 with 75 antes, I have 11,880 in my stack. 20 players left, 15 places gives entry to $100k tournament. I am UTG+1, with 9d8s, 7 players on the table. UTG folds, I look at my hand, and think since this table is pretty shorthanded, let me try stealing the blinds. I raise to 1.6k, player to my left thinks a while, then re raises to 3.2k. This player just suffered a big loss the previous hand, being chip-lead just moments ago. Everyone else folds, action to me.

I figured this guy might be making a move seeing as he could be steaming from the previous hand. I call. Flop comes 8c3s6d, I hit top pair and check, he bets 3.2k, effectively committing me if I call which gives me two options. Shove or fold. I choose the former, he shows me QQ and I bust out.

Where did I go wrong? First off, preflop, I should not have raised with such a marginal hand with 5 players left behind me to act. Second, I should have 3 bet if I thought he was steaming. A minimum raise would have shown me where I was at and it would have been easy enough to fold 98o. Calling out of position with a subpar hand was a horrendous play. Third, after calling and getting "lucky" on hitting top pair, I should have raised to see if he hit the flop or possibly have something better. A simple call from him would indicate a better hand since there are no probable draws on the board to match hands he would have re raised me with. A re raise would make it an easy fold.

I promised myself I would write this blog to analyze my own plays to stop myself from tilting and making bad plays, so this is the first, of probably many to come. 5 places away from payout with a higher than average stack and I blow it all away on 98o. Typical.

Red Tape, Outs and Odds

Even in online poker, there's a ton of red tape.

Now I found out why my account got restricted. The last time I tried to make a real money deposit, I found that there's a $2k limit on all deposits for 30 days. So being the smartass that I am, I tried to get around it by creating another account. Brilliant right? Except not, cuz my attempt was detected almost immediately and all accounts, including my bro and sis's accounts were subsequently locked.

Talk about hassle, the number of documents and emails I've had to send over to their security department for account verification. Doesn't help that the part of the world I'm from is well known for fraud.

So, while waiting for my account to be reinstated, I attempted to play in a freeroll tournament for frequent players. This is a hand that I played just 5 mins ago. Blinds were 10/20, effective stacks were about 1.5k. My stack was about 1.9k due to an earlier win. I picked up AdTd on the button, UTG folded, UTG+1 raised 3xBB. Two players to his left calls, then the rest folds all the way to me. I call, both blinds fold. So 4 players to the flop, which comes Qs7cJd, giving me a K gutshot draw with a backdoor flush. UTG+1 raised the same amount preflop, player to his left calls, next player folds, I call, as the pot odds were about 6.5 to 1 not including implied odds for a gutshot.

The next card was 9d, one of the best cards in the deck for me, seeing as how I now have the nut flush draw, plus an open ended straight draw, a total of 12 outs to a made hand on the board like K10, 15 for T8 (unlikely) and two pairs. The Ace does not count as an out as either opponent could have a possible A, with a kicker like K or J.

Original raiser checks, player on his left raises 220, I call, OR re raises to 700. Player to his left folds, I call. Pot before I called was 1590, and it only costs me another 480 to call, roughly 3 to 1 odds. The check raise suggested a made hand like KT, of which I still had outs to beat. The opponent had 680 in his stack, giving me the right odds to call. River came 4d, opponent shoves all in, I call, he shows K10.

All in all, a simple example of making the right calls with position in conjunction with sufficient outs and odds. Let's hope they unfreeze my account soon.

Bad Beats and Bad Luck

Well, I'm being restricted from depositing for an unknown reason. Its probably for the best, but having played online poker for almost a month during all my leisure hours, it does make you look for stuff to do when you're all out of the essentials. I have sent the guys up there an email on this, and given the typical response times, my account should be reinstated by today.

So, speaking of stuff to do in the meantime, what better can a poker addict do than write about poker? :)

What is luck? As defined on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck);

Luck is a belief in good or bad fortune in life caused by accident or chance which happens beyond a person's control.

Good or bad fortune caused by chance, something that applies to every single hand of poker. Given that all games of chance involving money are considered gambling, poker is perceived likewise. I am, however, of the opinion that poker is not gambling. As quoted from the excellent movie, Rounders, "why are the same people always at the final table at the World Series of Poker?".

I define luck in two words; short term.

Statistics! Luck is what happens when you are statistically at a disadvantage to win at roulette when you bet on a single number (37 to 1 or 2.7%), but the ball jumps and drops directly on the number you bet. Since roulette gives you 36 to 1 odds on the bet above, you would have made $36 for every $1 you wager. That would be a profit of $35 if you hit the number the very first time you bet $1. Now, the more you play, the less luck becomes a factor. So, in a similar situation, if you make 100 similar bets, you should statistically make $94.5, and lose $100, effectively losing $5.5 for every 100 bets.

With a more poker related example, this was a hand that I played a couple of days back. I had 7c7s on the small blind. This was played at a $0.5/$1 full ring table. UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, folds to cut-off who raises to $3, button folds and I decide to call with my mid pair to see the flop. Big blind folds, and UTG+1 calls. Flop comes Ks10s7d, giving me bottom set. I check to UTG+1, who checks, CO bets $3. I decide to slowplay as the CO has stats of 29/25 and is pretty loose and aggressive player in position, and also to induce UTG+1 to call, so I call, but UTG+1 folds.

With a possible straight and flush draw, I believe this was the prudent decision to control the size of the pot in case CO had a monster like KK or 1010. Turn comes 10d, giving me the full house and putting a possible diamond flush draw on the board. I check once again to CO who bets half the pot. I raised him 3.5x his bet, and he shoves me all in for my remaining $89. There are only two likely hands that could beat me in this scenario; KK and K10. The way I read it, KK would not shove me all in, but would flat call as he already had the nut boat and any other hand except 1010 would be drawing to a 2 outer at best, with position no less. A possible shove hand would be QsJs, Ace-x of Spades reading me for a K pair or a 10, or K10 due to the possible but unlikely repeat of K on the river. I can't lay down my boat, so I call, and he shows me K10. I don't think there is any way for me to lose less on that hand as he flopped top 2 pair. The best scenario would have been for me to re raise his flop raise, I 4-bet and he folds. But that is very unlikely.

Was it luck that he hit a four-outer on the turn which incidentally made my boat as well? Yes, but in the long term, replaying the similar scenario of bottom set vs top two pair, I would be the favourite to win about 91% of the time. Which means that I would definitely profit if I played all similar scenarios the exact same way.

Was this a bad beat? I think not. I am of the opinion that bad beats are like when your opponent calls your bets when behind with Ace high pre-flop, Ace high on the flop, and Ace high on the turn, to hit his Ace on the river and beat your KK. Donk calls that eventually pay off in that one hand, but would lose money in the long run. This was just plain bad luck.

A New Bankroll

Bankroll management, a critical aspect of playing poker professionally. A skill I discovered I sorely lack, the hard way. Yes, ashamed as I am to admit it, as of yesterday, I have lost my entire bankroll. Lacking discipline, one will lose entire days of hard work in a matter of minutes when playing at stakes too high for their bankrolls.

Admitting one's failures is tough, but it keeps you from fooling yourself that you were the victim of downswings and luck, when the reality is that you made bad reads and horrendous plays.

PokerTracker is an amazing tool. It helps track everything, from basic wins and losses to stats like; how often you win with a certain hand from a given position. I will probably write about it in more detail, but for now, the feature that I will talk about is the graph "Money Won (Showdown and Non-Showdown) for Hands Played".

As of today, I have played 22,878 recorded hands of poker since I started using PokerTracker. This tool tells me that I started off making money through playing solid hands with good showdown equity, and lost money on attempted bluffs and steals. As I progressed, I became very much more proficient at stealing pots, but my showdown hands were becoming steadily inferior, so much so that the loss of my bankroll can be attributed to paying off too many better hands on the river.

I guess this in part has to do with the human psych; you start bluffing a lot and you think in turn that you are being bluffed all the time. When the swing began, it should have been obvious to me if I looked at this graph that there was a major leak in my game. Fact was that I ignored all the signs, and attributed the losses to bad beats, luck, downswings and idiotic opponents, when the actual cause was me.

Tempted as I am to portray myself as the victim of luck, I will choose the very last hand that I played that cost me the last of my bankroll to showcase my bad play. This was played on a $1/$2 6 max 50BB table. I was on the big blind with Qd6d. UTG & UTG+1 folds to cutoff who raises to $4. The button calls the $4 and so does SB. The button is a player with VP/PR of 56/35 in 79 hands, a very loose and aggressive player. I have watched him raise with garbage and play very aggressively to take down many pots. It was only $2 for me to call for a $14 pot, so I limped in to see the flop, which came 10s3dQc, giving me top pair on a rainbow flop. SB checks, and I check with a plan to check-raise. Cutoff checks to button who raises to $8, half the pot. SB folds and I raise to $24, cutoff folds. Button re raises to $114, which over bets my remaining stack of $68.70. The flop is relatively uncoordinated, with limp hands like KJ, Q10 and 33 as hands that would induce a 3-bet. QQ, JJ, 1010, 99, AQ and KQ are unlikely as the button, being a very aggressive player, would have re raised preflop. With such a low kicker, one would think that this is an easy fold, but I put him on a move and called. He had 33.

Thinking back, even if it was a move, I should have folded the hand. Of the 3 hands which would have induced a 3-bet, 2 had me crushed. It was less than 2 to 1 odds for my remaining stack and the only hand I could possibly beat would be KJ of which I would only be a 3 to 1 favourite.

Lesson learnt. Too late...

I will be rebuilding my bankroll with a re-deposit of $300. This will let me play at a maximum buy-in of $3, which would mean micro-stakes. A good lesson on discipline and patience.

Genesis

Not exactly genesis since this is my second attempt at maintaining a blog, but this time, on a topic I'm very passionate about. Poker.

More specifically, Texas Hold'em, the cadillac of poker, the hardest way to make an easy living. This is the game where many have been lured by the success of many others before them for the chance to make millions. Of course, many have been pushed to bankruptcy while trying, given that the game requires a huge amount of skill to succeed and if there's a winner, there's bound to be someone somewhere losing.

In any case, this blog will help me record my journey to become a professional poker player. It will help me maintain my sanity through bad beats, help me record and remember my success and failures, and ultimately help me analyze my plays; for how better to force oneself to think through a play than to write about it.

Wish me luck. I'll need it.