This is so embarrassing I can hardly bring myself to write this.
In the very same tournament from the previous post, blinds are 400/800 with 75 antes, I have 11,880 in my stack. 20 players left, 15 places gives entry to $100k tournament. I am UTG+1, with 9d8s, 7 players on the table. UTG folds, I look at my hand, and think since this table is pretty shorthanded, let me try stealing the blinds. I raise to 1.6k, player to my left thinks a while, then re raises to 3.2k. This player just suffered a big loss the previous hand, being chip-lead just moments ago. Everyone else folds, action to me.
I figured this guy might be making a move seeing as he could be steaming from the previous hand. I call. Flop comes 8c3s6d, I hit top pair and check, he bets 3.2k, effectively committing me if I call which gives me two options. Shove or fold. I choose the former, he shows me QQ and I bust out.
Where did I go wrong? First off, preflop, I should not have raised with such a marginal hand with 5 players left behind me to act. Second, I should have 3 bet if I thought he was steaming. A minimum raise would have shown me where I was at and it would have been easy enough to fold 98o. Calling out of position with a subpar hand was a horrendous play. Third, after calling and getting "lucky" on hitting top pair, I should have raised to see if he hit the flop or possibly have something better. A simple call from him would indicate a better hand since there are no probable draws on the board to match hands he would have re raised me with. A re raise would make it an easy fold.
I promised myself I would write this blog to analyze my own plays to stop myself from tilting and making bad plays, so this is the first, of probably many to come. 5 places away from payout with a higher than average stack and I blow it all away on 98o. Typical.
July 27, 2009 at 9:52 AM
My own thinking on the 89o:
Pre-flop. Worth a call but definitely run away if you don't see a straight draw on the flop. The person who re-raised pre-flop is (1) already stack-damaged from the previous hand and (2) is signalling he has got a strong hand and is prepared to invest further. So prior to the flop being dealt, this is the frame of mind I am in.
Flop. Once the flop hits, I am in "fold" mode, cos I have top pair but meaningless kicker. I think your comment also is valid in that you should bet to see where you stand. From my pre-flop point of view, I already know he is committed to bet on the flop, and I am prepared to fold on the flop if I don't see a straight draw. By not betting on the flop, he just took action (unsurprising at this stage) to shove.
Even if you had bet on the flop, this chap would definitely shove you all-in with his or her QQ. Regardless of whether you had hit a set or top pair, or 2 pair, he's stack-damaged and needs to take a chance to double up so he can make top 15. He's going to take his chance with an overpair.
Playbook
pokermalaysia.wordpress.com
July 27, 2009 at 2:20 PM
Problem with calling on the flop to only be in "fold mode" is that you tend to bleed too many chips. Your opponent might only be making a simple c-bet on a missed flop (and there will be many of those as most flops miss most hands), and simply folding top pair would be a waste IMHO.
Mathematically, before the flop, any two unpaired cards have 2 to 1 odds of making a pair or better on the flop. This means that you will generally miss the flop 66% of the time. Of the 33% of the times that you actually hit, you might still be behind to your opponent's hand. This means that your chances of winning is less than 33% most of the time if you play the fit-or-fold strategy.
If you call a bet, only to fold on the flop if you miss, you will need to win (assuming you make the same bet each time) at least 1 bet to every 2 folds, for your pre-flop bet to be profitable. How many times do you actually win post flop?
Just my opinions and observations. I welcome discussions!
Post a Comment