In the previous installment, we were discussing pot odds and how to bet on the odds profitably. Betting profitably relies heavily on knowing the outs you have, which is what we will be talking about in this topic.
When someone talks about outs in Texas Hold'em poker, they are refering to the number of possible cards that could help them make the best hand, from the cards that are still left concealed. Let's say you have AhJh, and the flop comes 2h7hKc, you would have a total of 15 possible outs against someone with a single pair lower than K, say QQ and below, 12 possible outs against someone holding a K (9 hearts plus any Ace), and 9 outs against anyone holding aces, 2 pair or better.
Now let's say instead of AhJh, you hold QhJh. Your number of outs would have decreased dramatically as you could possibly be drawing dead (having no outs) to someone holding a nut flush draw, or having only as little as 9 outs against a simple K2 hand. In times like this, you would be better off folding your draw as you might end up losing more money. This then brings reading your opponent and estimating the range of hands he/she would play and the likelyhood of them holding those possible hands based on physical tells, betting patterns etc.When someone talks about outs in Texas Hold'em poker, they are refering to the number of possible cards that could help them make the best hand, from the cards that are still left concealed. Let's say you have AhJh, and the flop comes 2h7hKc, you would have a total of 15 possible outs against someone with a single pair lower than K, say QQ and below, 12 possible outs against someone holding a K (9 hearts plus any Ace), and 9 outs against anyone holding aces, 2 pair or better.
Another very important thing is to remember not to count your outs twice, or you could be giving yourself a very inaccurate estimate. Say you hold AhKc instead, and the flop is Ks7h2h, the turn is 6h, and your opponent holds Aces. This would give you a total number of 11 outs, 9 flush outs plus 2 kings. The last K (King of hearts) isn't counted because that card has already been counted in your flush outs.
Knowing the number of outs you have will determine your percentage of winning. Converting the number of outs you have into percentages is a simple process. A rough percentage estimate would be multiplying your outs by 2 for each street you will be able to see. Note that for outs that are more than 11, you should subtract 2-4% from the final estimate for a more accurate representation. So, if we take the first sample hand above and assume that we will see both the turn and river cards, we would have an estimate of 56% to beat a pair lower than K, 45% to beat a K pair, and 36% to beat Aces, 2 pair or better. Simple math.
If you only get to see one street, e.g. the turn, possibly due to aggressive betting, or you only make the draw on the turn, you only multiply your outs by 2, resulting in only half of the percentages listed above. In any case, knowing your percentages would give you a simple estimate on how much to bet or call for your bet to be profitable in the long run. Of course, this is not the be-all-end-all of betting. Texas Hold'em poker involves various other betting methods like bluffs and semi bluffs, but a basic knowledge of calculating your outs, translating that into your odds of winning, then making the right bet is crucial when you're playing poker. Having this skill is what separates the actual players from the gamblers.
Till the next time, may you never gamble with your bets!
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