So, speaking of stuff to do in the meantime, what better can a poker addict do than write about poker? :)
What is luck? As defined on Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Luck);
Luck is a belief in good or bad fortune in life caused by accident or chance which happens beyond a person's control.
Good or bad fortune caused by chance, something that applies to every single hand of poker. Given that all games of chance involving money are considered gambling, poker is perceived likewise. I am, however, of the opinion that poker is not gambling. As quoted from the excellent movie, Rounders, "why are the same people always at the final table at the World Series of Poker?".
I define luck in two words; short term.
Statistics! Luck is what happens when you are statistically at a disadvantage to win at roulette when you bet on a single number (37 to 1 or 2.7%), but the ball jumps and drops directly on the number you bet. Since roulette gives you 36 to 1 odds on the bet above, you would have made $36 for every $1 you wager. That would be a profit of $35 if you hit the number the very first time you bet $1. Now, the more you play, the less luck becomes a factor. So, in a similar situation, if you make 100 similar bets, you should statistically make $94.5, and lose $100, effectively losing $5.5 for every 100 bets.
With a more poker related example, this was a hand that I played a couple of days back. I had 7c7s on the small blind. This was played at a $0.5/$1 full ring table. UTG folds, UTG+1 calls, folds to cut-off who raises to $3, button folds and I decide to call with my mid pair to see the flop. Big blind folds, and UTG+1 calls. Flop comes Ks10s7d, giving me bottom set. I check to UTG+1, who checks, CO bets $3. I decide to slowplay as the CO has stats of 29/25 and is pretty loose and aggressive player in position, and also to induce UTG+1 to call, so I call, but UTG+1 folds.
With a possible straight and flush draw, I believe this was the prudent decision to control the size of the pot in case CO had a monster like KK or 1010. Turn comes 10d, giving me the full house and putting a possible diamond flush draw on the board. I check once again to CO who bets half the pot. I raised him 3.5x his bet, and he shoves me all in for my remaining $89. There are only two likely hands that could beat me in this scenario; KK and K10. The way I read it, KK would not shove me all in, but would flat call as he already had the nut boat and any other hand except 1010 would be drawing to a 2 outer at best, with position no less. A possible shove hand would be QsJs, Ace-x of Spades reading me for a K pair or a 10, or K10 due to the possible but unlikely repeat of K on the river. I can't lay down my boat, so I call, and he shows me K10. I don't think there is any way for me to lose less on that hand as he flopped top 2 pair. The best scenario would have been for me to re raise his flop raise, I 4-bet and he folds. But that is very unlikely.
Was it luck that he hit a four-outer on the turn which incidentally made my boat as well? Yes, but in the long term, replaying the similar scenario of bottom set vs top two pair, I would be the favourite to win about 91% of the time. Which means that I would definitely profit if I played all similar scenarios the exact same way.
Was this a bad beat? I think not. I am of the opinion that bad beats are like when your opponent calls your bets when behind with Ace high pre-flop, Ace high on the flop, and Ace high on the turn, to hit his Ace on the river and beat your KK. Donk calls that eventually pay off in that one hand, but would lose money in the long run. This was just plain bad luck.
July 27, 2009 at 10:34 AM
Pre-flop, pot should be 1+3x3 = 10
Flop, pot should be 6+10 = 16
Turn, pot (prior to your remaining $89 call) is 8+3.5x8+16 (+2.5x8+89) = 161
So your 89 would be about half-pot left to call.
Half-pot and you hit full-house already? I think definitely most people would call.
If I replay this hand in my mind subsequently, I won't really concentrate on the turn play. I will ask myself if I should have bet more on the flop. If you had re-raised him on the flop (let's assume an overbet of 15 on a pot of 10), would he have called? He's got top 2 pair, he doesn't know it yet, but he's basically got 4 outs to a full-house to survive the set (if he put you on a set). If he put you on a set, he shouldn't call (but still might). If he put you on 2 pair (perhaps K and 7) or top pair top kicker (KA), he will definitely call you, if not re-raise you. If he put you on a flush draw, he will call you, or again re-raise you out to terminate your flush draw.
On hindsight, I would probably bet out heavier on the flop cos you are also exposed to a flush which could kill off your set. But once the turn arrived, the outcome was inevitable as he had the luck to snag his 4-outer. So here, it was just plain bad luck.
I had a similar situation once, against Neil (from Johor). Middle set of 7s dominated by top set of Ts. I used to replay this situation many different times in my head (we were all-in on the flop, as I had engineered it that way) but try as I might I couldn't visualise a way to have won that hand. We both called 3x pre-flop, He checked (big blind), I bet out (on button), he re-raised all-in (and he's a very loose player), I called it. I might be tight, but I am not going to fold middle set on a rainbow board with no chance of a straight on the board (something like T72).
Playbook
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July 27, 2009 at 3:06 PM
These are the times when pot control is called for. In situations like set vs set, the only way to minimize losses is to slow play. I encountered this situation many times, e.g. Deuces on the button, UTG raised preflop, flop comes 9 5 2, UTG raises postflop, I raise, he re-raises all in, I call, he's got a set of 5s.
I have lost too much money where I flopped set over set to not think about minimizing exposure to situations like this. I feel that in situations where you might either be very ahead or very behind, simple pot control techniques like checking or flat calling the flop could save a lot of money, due to much smaller turn / river bets. Aggressive flop betting is one surefire way of getting yourself pot commited.
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